140
FXUS64 KLUB 151754
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1154 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
- BREEZY AND COOLER WITH INCREASING FIRE DANGER ON FRIDAY BEHIND
AN EARLY-DAY COLD FRONT.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN CHILLY ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL RETURN TO
VALUES NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR CHANNEL IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS DEEPENING
TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT, WITH A
PAIR OF WELL-DEFINED EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES OVER WY AND MT.
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
GIVEN DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW COURTESY OF A LEE-SIDE TROUGH
OVER NE NM, WITH A MAJORITY OF OUR AREA EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
70S THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS ON
THE WAY TONIGHT WITH LOWS RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, THE ABOVE-MENTIONED PAIR OF
SHORTWAVES WILL COLLECTIVELY DEEPEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH
MODELS PLACING THE CENTER OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER KS/OK BY
MIDDAY. THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN AN EARLY-DAY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY A CONTINUATION OF BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. A STRONG 50-60KT H7 JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO CENTER
OVER WESTERN OK ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MOMENTUM ALOFT IS LIKELY TO
HAVE A RELATIVELY SHARP CUTOFF FROM EAST TO WEST, WHICH COMBINED
WITH THE PRESENCE OF A BROADENING SURFACE RIDGE OVER EASTERN NM
SHOULD PREVENT WINDS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. NEVERTHELESS, IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
MORNING AND OVER THE SE TX PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE VERY DRY, WITH ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH DEEP EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO PERSIST MOST OF
THE DAY AS A CHILLY ~1032MB SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO THE
UPSLOPE SURFACE COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 40S
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
A WELL-DEFINED VORT LOBE TRANSITS OVERHEAD, BUT IT STILL SEEMS
RATHER UNLIKELY THAT ANYTHING WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE GIVEN
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON THE ORDER OF 30-40F.
OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STAGNANT THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS DEEP TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER
MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ONE MORE CHILLIER DAY TO THE REGION ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DE-
AMPLIFY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY BRING A RETURN OF MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
OVER WEST TX. AS A RESULT, MILDER WEATHER LOOKS MORE LIKELY DURING
THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
STILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STRONG WINDS AND WIND SHIFTS
WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
SHIFTING LIGHT WINDS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THESE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN SPEED BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
ON FRIDAY, SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. ON THE CAPROCK,
THESE WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHICH COMBINED WITH RH VALUES NEAR 10 PERCENT WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BE EVEN STRONGER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE CHILDRESS VICINITY. CURRENT RFTI
VALUES UP TO 3 ARE FORECAST NEAR CHILDRESS, AND A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SE TX PANHANDLE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
CONSIDERING THE VERY DRY FUEL STATES AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WINDS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CAPROCK AND
ROLLING PLAINS, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL MAX OUT AT
ELEVATED.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...01
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