299
FXUS64 KLUB 160444
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1044 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
- WINDY AND COOLER TODAY BEHIND A MORNING COLD FRONT.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-27
CORRIDOR.
- COLDER ON SATURDAY WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE, THEN MOSTLY
MILD AND DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
AFTER TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY, FRIDAY LOOKS TO BRING
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WITH IT. LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, WHILE A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WOBBLE AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW ACROSS GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING WAVES, A
COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTH FROM EASTERN CO AHEAD OF HURRICANE-FORCE
GUSTS AND WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR PANHANDLE
COUNTIES AROUND 3-4 AM AHEAD OF STRONG N WINDS, PERHAPS ADVISORY
LEVELS. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTH,
BECOMING BREEZY AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. ONE OF THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE
FORECAST FRIDAY IS JUST HOW STRONG THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE.
HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE CONFINED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS THE CORE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST. BOTH THE H7 AND H8
WIND MAXIMA REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WITH THE H8
CORE CLIPPING PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. IF
THE CORE OF THE TROUGH CREEPS FARTHER SOUTHWARD WE COULD SEE
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS MOVE IN. REGARDLESS, A BREEZY AND CHILLY DAY IS
IN STORE. GIVEN THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE VERY DRY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME SUB-ZERO READINGS
ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
LIKELY. PRIMARILY ELEVATED CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AS THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND ERCS AROUND THE 50TH TO 74TH PERCENTILE LIMIT
CRITICAL FIRE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED CRITICAL SPOTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE GIVEN
MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT, THE COOLER AIRMASS
IN PLACE COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
SATURDAY OPENS WITH A CHILLY SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS MARKED BY 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -7C AT CHILDRESS TO -4C
IN DENVER CITY. THIS COLD DUMP OCCURS AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER
TROUGH AND 140 KNOT UPPER JET IN NORTHERLY FLOW THAT FORTUNATELY
SPEEDS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY ALLOWING A QUICK RECOVERY
IN TEMPS. UNTIL THEN, WE'LL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH AN EXPANSIVE
STRATUS LAYER SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY CAP HIGH TEMPS MUCH LOWER THAN OUR
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE MID-LEVEL ARE INITIALLY DRY BEFORE
DAYBREAK, AMPLE HEIGHT FALLS WITH DPVA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS
ARE FORECAST TO COOL THE MID LEVELS ENOUGH FOR SATURATION
RESULTING IN A SNOW-BEARING LAYER AROUND 700-600 MB. ADD TO THIS
A STEADY AXIS OF FN ASCENT AT H7 AS PROGGED BY HIGHER RES MODELS
AND THE STAGE APPEARS SET FOR SOME SNOW MAINLY FARTHER NORTH IN
THE TX PANHANDLE WHILE OUR NORTHERN ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES HAS TO
CONTEND WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS SUPPORTIVE OF FLURRIES. THE NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE WITH STRATUS CAMPING OUT MOST OF THE DAY THEREBY
LOCKING HIGHS IN THE 30S, SO WE'LL KEEP WITH THE REMAINING MODELS
AND THEIR THEME OF THINNING STRATUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT STILL GET DOWNRIGHT COLD IN
THE TEENS EVEN AS THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS AHEAD OF LIGHT SW WINDS.
SOUTHWEST BREEZES FOR SUNDAY SPELL MILDER HIGHS IN THE 60S UNTIL A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A DISTANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURLING ACROSS THE CORN BELT. THIS FRONT KNOCKS HIGHS BACK TO
THE 40S FOR MONDAY UNTIL THE UA PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND YIELDS A
FLATTER/SEMI-ZONAL STRUCTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS BY WED AND THU.
THERE'S A SLIM CHANCE THIS TRANSITION DIRECTS A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE
OUR WAY, BUT FOR NOW WE LIKE THE MILD AND DRY NBM SOLUTION WHICH HAS
GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SOME BLDU ALONG A STRONG FROPA BEFORE
DAYBREAK. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD HIT 30+ KNOTS SUSTAINED
FOR A FEW HOURS. EARLIER LLWS WAS PULLED AS SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OFFSET THIS THREAT. WINDS EASE BACK BY MID
MORNING UNTIL DIMINISHING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93
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