806
FXUS64 KLUB 161033 CCA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
433 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 8 AM CST.
- NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH AND
WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST, ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-27
CORRIDOR.
- COLDER ON SATURDAY WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE, THEN MOSTLY
MILD AND DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MULTIPLE WTM SITES ARE MEASURING SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. GUSTS MAY
PEAK NEAR 65 MPH AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE CWA. EXPECT
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AS LOW AS ONE MILE FROM BLOWING DUST, AS
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HABOOB ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
SINCAVAGE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 124 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BETWEEN
09-14Z (3 AM CST THROUGH 8 AM CST), AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WATER-VAPOR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A BARRIER JET HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE LEE OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS IN WAKE OF AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH IS
REINFORCING ITS RAPID PROGRESSION. NUMEROUS METARS ACROSS EASTERN
CO AND WESTERN KS HAVE OBSERVED SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WITHIN HIGH
WIND TERRITORY, WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 70 MPH AT TIMES. THE COLD
FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT NEARLY 60 MPH, AND WILL ENTER THE FAR
SOUTHERN TX PH BY 09Z. POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES WILL BE STEEP,
WITH AN EXPECTATION FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH TO BE COMMON
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHLY
LOCALIZED GUSTS MAY NEAR OR EXCEED 60 MPH. GRIDS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING, AND A HABOOB REMAINS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND METAR DATA ACROSS EASTERN CO AND WESTERN
KS. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW LOW REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL BE, BUT
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY MAY ACCOMPANY THE
COLD FRONT AS IT SURGES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA, ESPECIALLY ON
THE CAPROCK. A CONSIDERATION WAS MADE FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING, BUT
A GRADUAL SLACKENING OF THE SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD OCCUR, WITH
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE
ACROSS THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE
SUNRISE, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED LATER INTO THE MORNING.
SINCAVAGE
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
AFTER TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY, FRIDAY LOOKS TO BRING
MUCH COOLER WEATHER WITH IT. LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, WHILE A PAIR OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WOBBLE AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW ACROSS GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING WAVES, A
COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTH FROM EASTERN CO AHEAD OF HURRICANE-FORCE
GUSTS AND WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR PANHANDLE
COUNTIES AROUND 3-4 AM AHEAD OF STRONG N WINDS, PERHAPS ADVISORY
LEVELS. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTH,
BECOMING BREEZY AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. ONE OF THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE
FORECAST FRIDAY IS JUST HOW STRONG THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE.
HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE CONFINED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS THE CORE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST. BOTH THE H7 AND H8
WIND MAXIMA REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WITH THE H8
CORE CLIPPING PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. IF
THE CORE OF THE TROUGH CREEPS FARTHER SOUTHWARD WE COULD SEE
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS MOVE IN. REGARDLESS, A BREEZY AND CHILLY DAY IS
IN STORE. GIVEN THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE VERY DRY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME SUB-ZERO READINGS
ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
LIKELY. PRIMARILY ELEVATED CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AS THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND ERCS AROUND THE 50TH TO 74TH PERCENTILE LIMIT
CRITICAL FIRE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED CRITICAL SPOTS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE GIVEN
MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT, THE COOLER AIRMASS
IN PLACE COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
SATURDAY OPENS WITH A CHILLY SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS MARKED BY 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND -7C AT CHILDRESS TO -4C
IN DENVER CITY. THIS COLD DUMP OCCURS AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER
TROUGH AND 140 KNOT UPPER JET IN NORTHERLY FLOW THAT FORTUNATELY
SPEEDS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY ALLOWING A QUICK RECOVERY
IN TEMPS. UNTIL THEN, WE'LL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH AN EXPANSIVE
STRATUS LAYER SATURDAY MORNING THAT COULD LINGER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY CAP HIGH TEMPS MUCH LOWER THAN OUR
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE MID-LEVEL ARE INITIALLY DRY BEFORE
DAYBREAK, AMPLE HEIGHT FALLS WITH DPVA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS
ARE FORECAST TO COOL THE MID LEVELS ENOUGH FOR SATURATION
RESULTING IN A SNOW-BEARING LAYER AROUND 700-600 MB. ADD TO THIS
A STEADY AXIS OF FN ASCENT AT H7 AS PROGGED BY HIGHER RES MODELS
AND THE STAGE APPEARS SET FOR SOME SNOW MAINLY FARTHER NORTH IN
THE TX PANHANDLE WHILE OUR NORTHERN ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES HAS TO
CONTEND WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS SUPPORTIVE OF FLURRIES. THE NAM IS
LIKELY OVERDONE WITH STRATUS CAMPING OUT MOST OF THE DAY THEREBY
LOCKING HIGHS IN THE 30S, SO WE'LL KEEP WITH THE REMAINING MODELS
AND THEIR THEME OF THINNING STRATUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT STILL GET DOWNRIGHT COLD IN
THE TEENS EVEN AS THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS AHEAD OF LIGHT SW WINDS.
SOUTHWEST BREEZES FOR SUNDAY SPELL MILDER HIGHS IN THE 60S UNTIL A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT VIA A DISTANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURLING ACROSS THE CORN BELT. THIS FRONT KNOCKS HIGHS BACK TO
THE 40S FOR MONDAY UNTIL THE UA PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES AND YIELDS A
FLATTER/SEMI-ZONAL STRUCTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS BY WED AND THU.
THERE'S A SLIM CHANCE THIS TRANSITION DIRECTS A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE
OUR WAY, BUT FOR NOW WE LIKE THE MILD AND DRY NBM SOLUTION WHICH HAS
GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SOME BLDU ALONG A STRONG FROPA BEFORE
DAYBREAK. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD HIT 30+ KNOTS SUSTAINED
FOR A FEW HOURS. EARLIER LLWS WAS PULLED AS SURFACE WINDS LOOK TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO OFFSET THIS THREAT. WINDS EASE BACK BY MID
MORNING UNTIL DIMINISHING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ021>044.
UPDATE...09
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93
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