258
FXUS64 KLUB 161747
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
- NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH,
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECREASING.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
- COLDER ON SATURDAY WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE, THEN DRY WITH 2
WEAKER COLD FRONTS THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE COLD FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE FA AND HAS LEFT MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT
LATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE FA. THIS WOULD
NORMALLY RESULT IN MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS THAN WHAT IS FORECAST,
BUT STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND WILL HELP TO INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE STRATUS
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THANKS TO MOISTENING LOW AND MID LEVELS.
NOTHING MORE IS EXPECTED AS LITTLE TO NO LIFT IS EXPECTED. STRATUS
WILL ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA LATE SUNDAY AND
WILL HELP COOL HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S FOR MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FOR MOST OF MONDAY, AIDING IN KEEPING TEMPS
COOL. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM BACK INTO
THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ANOTHER
FRONT SOUTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH THE
UPPER PATTERN BY THIS POINT. THE GFS BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE WEST COAST WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF HOLDS ON THE UPPER RIDGE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
DAY. THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AND BACK-TO-BACK
COLD FRONTS WILL HELP KEEP HIGHS ON THE THE WARMEST DAYS, WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY, IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING AND REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS (GENERALLY AOA 4000 FT) SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE PVW AND/OR CDS COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES
SATURDAY MORNING, BUT DRY LOW-LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS AT/NEAR THE SURFACE. INSTEAD, VFR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...23
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