375
FXUS64 KLUB 171719
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1119 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
- COLDER SATURDAY WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
- BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING ANOTHER
FRONT.
- A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PASS THROUGH THE REGION, BUT
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CWA AS THE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE RIDGE
PREVAILS. MID-LEVEL STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN OVER THE FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EXPAND OVER THE THE
REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, HOWEVER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HINDER RADIATIVE COOLING KEEPING LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S. AS THE STRATUS CONTINUES TO FILL IN,
SOME FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE, ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS ON THE SURFACE AS
CURRENT SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DRY LOW-LEVELS. A COOL SATURDAY IS
IN STORE AS THE LINGERING STRATUS HINDERS DAYTIME HEATING WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND THE
STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING AS A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CWA. QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. THE LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES
CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
BEGINNING ON SUNDAY, THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH HAS
BEEN PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL
FINALLY BEGIN TO SLOWLY FLATTEN. ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY OVER OUR AREA, MODEST MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND A
RETURN OF WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE 60S AREA-WIDE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THIS WARM-UP WILL BE
BRIEF AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW PERSISTS ALL DAY MONDAY AS A COOL 1032MB SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER OKLAHOMA. HIGHS MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 40S AREA-
WIDE, WITH A GRADUAL WARM-UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE FINALLY EXITS TO THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MODELS
ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST TX WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL, ALTHOUGH WITH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW STILL IN
PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CONTINENT. THIS PATTERN WILL STILL LEAVE THE
DOOR OPEN FOR A FEW COLD FRONTS TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION WITH
CURRENT PROGS SUPPORTING ANOTHER POSSIBLE COOLDOWN BY NEXT THURSDAY.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL UNFORTUNATELY BE NEARLY NON-EXISTENT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH THE FORECAST REMAINING DRY THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON. VARIATION WITH DIRECTION IS EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...26
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