313
FXUS64 KLUB 172313
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
513 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
- OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT.
- A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS PASS THROUGH THE REGION, BUT
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
THE ONLY AREAS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING AS OF 11 AM ARE THOSE SOUTH OF
THE STRATUS. AREAS UNDER STRATUS HAVE STRUGGLED SO FAR TO REACH 30F.
SOME LIGHT SNOW STILL CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. SNOW HAS ONLY RECENTLY BEGUN
TO REACH THE GROUND AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE FINALLY DROPPED
BELOW 10F. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE STRATUS PUSHES TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT BY THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND SURFACE
TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
INTO THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. BEFORE THIS COLD FRONT, WE
WILL GET TO ENJOY ONE RELATIVELY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY
RISING INTO THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW AND A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY
WILL ALONG WITH POSSIBLE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO KEEP MONDAY'S
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LEE TROUGH AND WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM
BACK INTO THE 50S. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE 50S
AND 60S INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE DESPITE A SHORT LIVED COLD
FRONT BY EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY, THE GFS TRANSITIONS
THE UPPER FLOW TO ZONAL ROUGHLY ONE DAY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN IS GENERALLY THE SAME GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THOUGH BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD, GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. BREEZY WINDS
AT KCDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AT ALL THREE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LLWS OF 40
KNOTS AROUND 800 FEET IS EXPECTED AT KCDS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY PICK UP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...10
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