204
FXUS64 KLUB 180528
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
- PLEASANT AND MILD SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT.
- CHILLY WEATHER RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH AN UP-AND-DOWN TREND IN TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL COLD FRONTS
PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
- NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
WILL BE A MUCH WARMER AND SUNNIER SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT DOMINATED CENTRAL CONUS ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH
ACROSS EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE DAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW AS THE TROUGH TRANSLATES AWAY
FROM THE REGION AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FLATTENS. THIS MORNING WILL BE COLD AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT WILL AID IN TEMPERATURES COOLING TO THE MID TEENS TO MID
20S. WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE LOW TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
SLIGHT THICKNESS INCREASES AND MODERATE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
AID IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TO THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE LEE SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER, THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT
WILL REACH THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL
COOL TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 20S TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
OVERALL, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A
REPETITIVE CYCLE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER
MOST OF THE CONTINENT. ANOTHER VERY CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY DAY COLD FRONT, WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW PROGGED TO BE RELATIVELY STRONG AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
RAPIDLY OVER KS. THIS COMBINED WITH WHAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DENSE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND ENOUGH CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE
IN THE DAY TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. LEE SURFACE TROUGHING
AHEAD OF A WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A RETURN OF
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW TUESDAY, BUT SUCH A COLD ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS FROM MONDAY WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE, WITH HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY
RECOVERING TO THE LOW TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO WARM BACK NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY, BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST INCREASES THEREAFTER WITH
GUIDANCE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
THE NEXT SERIES OF COLD FRONTS AS FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS AND BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. CURRENT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
BE RELATIVELY WARM BEFORE ANOTHER COOLDOWN NEXT WEEKEND, WITH SOME
STRONGER WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE, DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES WITH NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LLWS OF 40 KNOTS
AROUND 800 FEET IS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT KCDS. LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, HOWEVER
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP SLIGHTLY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTION
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...10
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