825
FXUS64 KLUB 182311
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
511 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
- CHILLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
- CHILLY WEATHER RETURNS ON MONDAY WITH AN UP-AND-DOWN TREND IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL
COLD FRONTS PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
- NO PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALLOWED SURFACE TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE
MID 40S/LOW 50 AS OF 11 AM FROM THE TEENS/LOW 20S OBSERVED THIS
MORNING. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPS WARM INTO THE 60S BY MID
AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT
IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA AS OF 11 AM. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE FA BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FA BY SUNRISE MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
AND OUT OF THE EAST ALL DAY MONDAY AND WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS ON
THE CHILLY SIDE. WHILE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, IT WILL NOT
BE LOW STRATUS OR OVERLY THICK AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SOLAR
INSULATION TO WARM HIGHS INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AS A SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO
SETTLE OVER THE FA. THIS WILL HELP LOWS DROP TO THE TEENS ONCE AGAIN
BY TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL VEER WINDS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BEFORE
NOON TUESDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WEDNESDAY'S CURRENT FORECAST HAS
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S, BUT THIS
WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE GFS
KEEPS THE FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE FA WITH THE FROPA OCCURRING AFTER
10 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THE FROPA
BEFORE 12Z WEDNESDAY AND WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS THAT STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO NARROW TO A
SMALL TIME FRAME BEFORE THE FRONT EXISTS SO FOR NOW THE NBM FORECAST
WILL REMAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO VARY
GREATLY BETWEEN MODELS BEYOND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE ECMWF KEEPS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH ZONAL FLOW AND DRY CONDITIONS
REMAINING OVER THE FA. THE GFS BRINGS THE CLOSE LOW OVER SOCAL AS
EARLY AS SUNRISE FRIDAY AND ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA INTO BAJA BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH THE
FA BY NOON FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIP THEN DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND LASTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. CURRENTLY THE PRECIP TYPE IS ALL
SNOW. THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS WERE NOT NEARLY AS WET,
WAS DELAYED ANOTHER 24 TO 48 HOURS, AND WAS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF
THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME THE NBM HAS NOT PICKED UP ON THIS PATTERN
AND KEEPS THE FORECAST DRY WHICH SEEMS LOGICAL AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING
BRINGING BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...10
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