349
FXUS64 KLUB 190446
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1046 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
- A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS AND
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEK BEFORE A SHARP COOLDOWN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFICS IS
EXTREMELY LOW AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
WE ARE ON COLD FRONT WATCH AT THE MOMENT. CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT IS ORIENTED NW TO SE THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ABOUT TO REACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. CURRENT MODELS
HAVE THE FRONT REACHING THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE RIGHT
AROUND SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN, LIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS A LEE SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH NEW MEXICO. WILL BE A CHILLY MORNING AS LIGHT SURFACE FLOW
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE 20S. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL FILL IN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. FOLLOWING THE FROPA,
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CWA. WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY
COMPARED TO SUNDAY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
AS NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW USHERS IN COOLER ARCTIC AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE
REGION THIS EVENING, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND REMAIN LIGHT
OVERNIGHT AND THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE POST-
FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH FILLS IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SET UP WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
A FAMILIAR UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDWEEK AS
LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PERSISTS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. THE
CONTINUATION OF THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW THE REPETITIVE SERIES OF COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGES TO CONTINUE OVER WEST TX, BUT AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THESE MIDWEEK FRONTS WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK WITH AN
INITIAL LACK OF NOTABLY COLD AIR UPSTREAM. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH ABOUT
THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THEN AS WELL.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, CURRENT ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS POINTS TO A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WHICH WILL BRING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE SUB-500DAM H5 LOW
OVER ONTARIO FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AN EVOLUTION
WHICH WILL SEND A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS REGION AS A NEARLY 1050MB SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALSO DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, FLOW ALOFT OVER
WEST TX IS PROGGED TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
LOCATED OFF THE SOCAL/BAJA COAST. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP COMBINED WITH
THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT SUGGESTS THERE IS AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN HUGE VOLATILITY OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS WHICH
RESULTS IN EXTREMELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE PATTERN WILL
ACTUALLY EVOLVE, AND ANY SPECIFICS REGARDING THE TIMING AND ANY
AMOUNTS OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION SIMPLY CANNOT BE RESOLVED AT THIS
LEAD TIME. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AROUND
SUNRISE BRINGING BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS TO ALL THREE TAF SITES.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THIS EVENING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...10
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