499
FXUS64 KLUB 271735
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1135 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
- SUB-FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALLOW FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WET SURFACES REFREEZE.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR MID-TO-
LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
DESPITE THICK HIGH CLOUDS BLANKETING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AT 11
AM, TEMPERATURES WERE REMARKABLY 15-30 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY THANKS TO THE FRIGID SURFACE HIGH HAVING EXITED TO THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST. MILDER WESTERLY BREEZES BEHIND THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY HIGH CLOUDS
CLEARING FROM W-E AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS IN WNW FLOW.
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY BY SUNSET WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SURFACE HIGH, BUT BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THIS HIGH
WILL ALREADY BE PACKING FOR THE CONCHO VALLEY. THICKNESSES CLIMB
NICELY FOR WEDNESDAY AS WINDS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN BACK
MORE WESTERLY AND ADVECT MILDER AIR OUR WAY. EVEN WITH FULL SUN AND
GENTLE DOWNSLOPE FLOW, THE LINGERING SNOWPACK WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE SIXTH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH MID-TO-UPPER 40S ON TAP.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONSUMES THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE MAIN
MESSAGE BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COLD SPELL THIS WEEKEND. TO
START THE EXTENDED THE FA WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS OVER THE NE-CONUS
WOBBLES EASTWARD, WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS W-CONUS. AS A RESULT OF THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THE FORECAST
REMAINS PRETTY QUIET AND DRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, OTHER THAN A SERIES
OF FRONTS IMPACTING THE REGION THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY.
BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE EASTWARD MOST LOW WILL TRACK EAST, WHILE
THE WESTWARD MOST LOW DIVES SOUTHWARD, BECOMING AN OPEN SHORTWAVE
THAT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE TRAILING
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT, INCREASING SPEEDS TO AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AS HEIGHTS BECOME TIGHTLY PACKED. ALTHOUGH MOST
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT SOME POINT
THURSDAY MORNING, WE ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES FROM
WEDNESDAY AS THE COOLER AIRMASS REMAINS TO OUR NORTH DESPITE THE
NORTHERLY SHIFT IN WINDS. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH
REMAINING TO OUR NORTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, SETTING UP A BLOCKING SCENARIO OF THE COOLER
AIRMASS INTO OUR REGION. REGARDLESS, WE WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
STANDARDS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S THURSDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INFLUENCE A COOLER REGIME. EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AND
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER A SIMILAR SET-UP. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE
SURFACE HIGH TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTH ATLANTIC REGION WILL
WORK TO SWING A SECONDARY FRONT INTO OUR AREA SATURDAY. MODELS ARE A
BIT ALL OVER THE PLACE IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FROPA, WITH
THE GFS SUGGESTING A SLOWER FROPA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BY AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. THIS HAS LEAD TO
A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. FOR WHAT
IS IS WORTH, NBM SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON ENSEMBLES QUICKER TIMING
WITH FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. ALIGNING WELL
WITH THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE THIS MORNING, WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS ON
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S, ALTHOUGH THIS SEEMS A BIT
OVERDONE AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME, GIVEN RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCE,
WILL OPT FOR NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST UNTIL WE SEE MODELS IN BETTER
AGREEMENT. THIS COLD SPELL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS
RETURNING BY LATE SATURDAY AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTH.
THEREAFTER, RIDGING WILL WORK TO BUILD BACK IN THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE EXISTS FOR FZFG AT ANY
OF THE TERMINALS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...93
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