858
FXUS64 KLUB 281732
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1132 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
- NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- COLDER SATURDAY BEFORE MILD TEMPERATURES RESUME NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE, THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LBB AREA WILL
SURGE SOUTHWARD AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NM.
AS A RESULT, POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK
OUT OF THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BECOMING
BORDERLINE BREEZY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
EXPECT SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THESE WARM DOWNSLOPING WINDS COMBINED WITH
INCREASED THICKNESS AND HEIGHT VALUES, IN ADDITION TO CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD, WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. GIVEN WE REACHED HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
YESTERDAY WITH THICK HIGH CLOUDS PRESENT THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, NBM SEEMED A BIT TOO COOL WITH TODAYS MAXT'S. SO WE
WENT AHEAD WITH THE WARMER CONSMOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50S. NONETHELESS, REMAINING SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
REGION SHOULD HELP KEEP US JUST BELOW OR AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL
STANDARDS. LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEING TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH
WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED SHOULD HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS MUCH WARMER IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S EXPECTED.
BY THURSDAY MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL WILL WOBBLE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF NE CONUS, WHILE THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE ASSOCIATED FROPA WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH
AROUND DAYBREAK, WITH HI-RESOLUTION MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS LOOK
TO BECOME DECENTLY PACKED, RESULTING IN BREEZY WIND SPEEDS AROUND
10 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE THE FRONT, THE COOLER
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, AS THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
BLOCK THE COOLER AIR FROM FILTERING IN. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COOLER-NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THANKS TO THE NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
BARRING A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ON SATURDAY, THE EXTENDED
FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS
OF FEBRUARY. THE UA PATTERN TRANSITIONS FROM WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW
ON FRIDAY TO A FLATTER AND WEAKER REGIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW ROTATES SOUTH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY, A DOME OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTH AND REACH OUR AREA AS
A BACKDOOR FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE PROGGING A 1048-1050 MB SURFACE HIGH IN CENTRAL
KS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THIS ALONE IS CONCERNING AS THE NBM IS NOT
DOING THIS COLD AIR ENOUGH JUSTICE, PARTICULARLY AS OUR 850 MB TEMPS
PLUMMET TO -6C TO -10C. ODDLY, THE NBM CAME IN WITH MILDER DAYTIME
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY SO THIS WAS TRADED FOR ITS 50TH PERCENTILE TO
TREND CLOSER TO THE COLDER MOS NUMBERS. EVEN IF POST-FRONTAL STRATUS
CLEARS OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE COLD DOME WON'T BUDGE UNTIL
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
FLAT UPPER RIDGING ARRIVES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY RESTORING MILDER
TEMPS, BUT THIS APPEARS SHORT LIVED AS LONGWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY
OVERTAKES THE PACIFIC COAST RESULTING IN ANOTHER TROUGH OR LOW
DESCENDING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. ARCTIC AIR APPEARS TO
STAY BOTTLED UP WELL TO OUR NORTH FOLLOWING THIS WAVE, SO ONLY A
MODEST COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY WITH NO REAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...12
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