218
FXUS64 KLUB 292233
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
433 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
- WARMING UP THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT STILL NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL STANDARDS.
- MUCH COOLER SATURDAY AHEAD OF HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
CONUS, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AS A RESULT, WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH UNEVENTFUL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE CAPROCK REGIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW, ANALYZED JUST EAST OF THE
FA, CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE DFW METRO CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS LOOK TO BECOME
DECENTLY PACKED, INCREASING SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. DESPITE NORTHERLY FLOW,
INCREASED THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL AID IN THE
WARM UP OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
CALM BEFORE SUNSET AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST, WHICH
COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO
THE 20S. THIS IS MUCH COOLER FROM WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT THANKS
TO MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALTHOUGH THE WARM UP OF TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WORK TO MELT AND DRY UP ANY REMAINING SNOWPACK, THERE WILL
REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE AGAIN ACROSS AREAS THAT
MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH DRYING THIS AFTERNOON. FRIDAY, EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
FRIDAY EVENING OPENS WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP THAT
PROCEEDS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A CHILLY 1048 MB
SURFACE HIGH IN KANSAS WILL SUPPLY US WITH LIGHT, BUT MOIST ENE
UPSLOPE WINDS THAT GENERATE A STRATUS FIELD THAT MAY LOITER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY SERVING TO KEEP HIGHS COLDER THAN
PRESENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW THIS LAYER APPEARS THIN ENOUGH THAT
WHEN SUBJECTED TO LOWER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING SOUTH ALONG WITH
MODEST DAYTIME MIXING, WE SHOULD SEE SKIES CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON THEREBY HELPING HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S.
UPSLOPE WINDS ARE PROGGED TO VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ON THE CAPROCK RESULTING IN THE MILDEST HIGHS NEAR THE NM BORDER.
ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME, IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
SOME SPOTS SEE A BOUT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE STRATUS DECK ASCENDS AND THINS OUT.
AS THE CHILLY SURFACE RIDGE PEELS AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT, MUCH MILDER
THICKNESSES TAKE CHARGE AHEAD OF A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE IN NW
FLOW. THE EMERGENCE OF A REX BLOCK ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST BY
TUESDAY WILL THROW US BACK INTO A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME
COMPLETE WITH A WEAK FROPA BY LATE TUESDAY. THE EARLIER PRECIP
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WERE DRIED OUT ON THE
LATEST NBM WHICH SYNCS WELL WITH THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE RUNS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...19
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