550
FXUS64 KLUB 301732
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1132 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
- MUCH COOLER SATURDAY AHEAD OF HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S NEXT
WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR FREEZING FOG AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
A QUIET DAY IS IN STORE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS
POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS, WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
DOMINATING OVER EASTERN CONUS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, A
CUTOFF LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED, QUICKLY DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BY SATURDAY. IN TURN, AN ASSOCIATED
CANADIAN FROPA WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HI-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE FROPA TIMING, ENTERING OUR MOST NORTHERN COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR MOST SOUTHERN COUNTIES
BEFORE DAYBREAK.THEREFORE A QUICK BLAST OF COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS
WAY INTO THE REGION AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHWARD.AS FOR
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, THEY REMAIN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST,
DESPITE FROPA TIMING BEING HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS IS FOR A FEW
REASONS, ONE BEING THAT WINDS WILL BE QUICK TO VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN
SOUTHEASTERN CO. THE SECOND BEING THE ANTICIPATION OF LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD
THROW A WRENCH IN DIURNAL HEATING. ALL THIS TO SAY, IF CLOUDS STICK
AROUND AND WINDS ARE NOT AS QUICK TO RECOVER THEN WE COULD SEE HIGHS
A LITTLE CLOSER TO MET GUIDANCE IN THE 20S (ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES) AND 30S.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, LOW-
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING.
SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG AND AREAS
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. TAKING A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
AREA, THEY INDICATE A SHALLOW SATURATED COLUMN OF MOISTURE CONFINED
TO THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SUBFREEZING. WHILE
THE COLUMN ABOVE REMAINS DRY AND SHALLOW WITHIN THE DGZ TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE THAN FZDZ AND/OR FZFG. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSISTS
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ON THE CAPROCK BEFORE WE DRY
OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL, LIGHT ICING ON ELEVATED SURFACES WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY MORNING. EXERCISE CAUTION AND ALLOW YOURSELF MORE DRIVE
TIME ON YOUR MORNING COMMUTE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS GENERALLY PROGGED TO DEAMPLIFY THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE POTENT UPPER
LOW OVER THE EAST COAST EXITS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND WEAK RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUICK
RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME
AS SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW PERSISTS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S EACH AFTERNOON. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS A REX BLOCK WILL ESTABLISH OVER CA/BAJA WHICH WILL ALLOW
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO POSITION OVER THE WEST TX REGION.
CONSEQUENTLY, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT OR
TWO LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT AT THIS POINT MODEL AND MOS CONSENSUS STILL
FAVORS TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL. OVERALL, A DRY
AND UNEVENTFUL FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT, LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG
AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN BOTH OF THESE
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION AND WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATED IN
THE NEXT ISSUANCE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12
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