747
FXUS64 KLUB 311111
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
511 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
- SOME FREEZING FOG AND SLIGHT CHANCES OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SATURDAY
MORNING, MAINLY NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER.
- MORNING CLOUDS ON SATURDAY GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON SUN WITH MUCH
COOLER HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
AT 11 PM A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WAS RUNNING FROM HEREFORD TO
PLAINVIEW TO JAYTON AND SHOULD EXIT OUR AREA BY 3 AM. POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS HAS BEEN CONFINED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I40, THOUGH THIS
WILL CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRATUS EMERGES IN MOIST ENE
UPSLOPE FLOW. HRRR SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING STRATUS
LOWERING TO AROUND 500 FEET AGL, ALTHOUGH THE DEPTH OF THIS LAYER
OVERALL IS LOOKING NOT AS DEEP FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE PRODUCTION AS
EARLIER THOUGHT. AREAS CLOSER TO THE NM BORDER STAND THE BEST CHANCE
FOR BOTH SOME FREEZING FOG AND A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE WELL AHEAD
OF DRIER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS DRYING SHOULD ERADICATE MUCH OF THE STRATUS OFF THE
CAPROCK AFTER DAYBREAK, BUT FARTHER WEST THESE DRY UPSLOPE WINDS
WILL FALL SHORT AS WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY. THE UPSHOT
OF THIS IS THAT WE EXPECT STRATUS TO DISSIPATE MUCH SLOWER ON THE
CAPROCK, ALBEIT NOWHERE NEAR AS DIRE AND COLD AS THE NAM SUGGESTS.
NBM TEMPS WERE COOLED A TOUCH TO ACCOUNT FOR LOW CLOUDS NOT CLEARING
ENTIRELY UNTIL 2-4 PM. AS THE 1045 MB SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FROM
WICHITA ON SATURDAY MORNING TO THE OZARKS SATURDAY NIGHT, WE'LL KEEP
A REPRIEVE OF CHILLY SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA ALLOWING LIGHT
WINDS TO VEER WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND SECURE SLIGHTLY MILDER LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO COLLAPSE
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO A HIGH-FREQUENCY WAVE TRAIN OVER
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC BASIN, WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PROPAGATING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY, WITH FULL INSOLATION
AND LIGHT WINDS; AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
BY MONDAY. MOIST, ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE CONFINED ABOVE 400 MB,
WITH A THICK CIRRUS SHIELD FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD W TX. DESPITE THE
DENSE OVERCAST, WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE INCREASES TO 15-25 MPH (INCLUDING GUSTS) IN RESPONSE TO THE
LEEWARD PRESSURE FALLS, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AREA-WIDE MONDAY AND WELL-SHORT OF ANY RECORDS. THE
QUICK PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
AN AMPLIFYING, POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AS A REX BLOCK EVOLVES OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THE FIRST OF
TWO POLAR COLD FRONTS IS SET TO ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH BRISK, NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE
THROUGH DUSK TUESDAY. THE SECONDARY FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY,
AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. BOTH OF THESE
FROPAS WILL BE DRY, WITH CAA MODIFYING SUCH THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY MID-WEEK. THE LOW POPS GENERATED BY
THE NBM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN REMOVED
DUE TO THE LARGE SWATH OF DRY AIR BENEATH THE SHALLOW BELT OF MOIST,
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE MID-LEVELS. DRY AND MILD WEATHER REMAINS
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING
TO THE WEST AND RESULTANT NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
IFR CIGS HAVE FILLED IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING AT
KLBB AND KPVW. KCDS WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE SCATTERED MVFR CLOUDS.
THE IFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB AND KPVW ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING
TO VFR. THERE IS A NON-ZERO BUT SMALL CHANCE OF LOW CIGS AND
VISBYS RETURNING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01
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