608
FXUS64 KLUB 010602
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1202 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
- MORE FREEZING FOG EXPECTED FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
A NARROW, BUT PESKY STRIP OF STRATUS WAS PARKED FROM CVS-HRX-AMA
LATE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED OVERNIGHT AS
MOIST W-SW WINDS PERSIST IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET. THIS
SATURATED LAYER POSES THE RISK FOR ANOTHER, ALBEIT MORE FOCUSED,
ROUND OF FREEZING FOG OVERNIGHT FOR OUR FAR NW COUNTIES. LATEST OBS
OF LIGHT FOG AT CLOVIS AND FRIONA SUPPORT THE HRRR WHICH CONTINUES
TO BLOSSOM LOWER VISBYS THROUGH THE EARLY A.M. IN THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FREEZING FOG IS TOO LOW
FOR HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR. THIS FOG
SHOULD MAKE A QUICK EXODUS BY 9-10 AM ONCE LOW-LEVEL MIXING ENTERS
THE PICTURE.
OTHERWISE, UPPER RIDGING INCHES ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON
SUNDAY PROVIDING US WITH AMPLE HEIGHT GAINS IN NW FLOW. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES JUMP 120 METERS IN 24 HOURS ALL THE WHILE CHILLY SURFACE
RIDGING PEELS FARTHER AWAY. THIS ALONG WITH LIGHT W-SW WINDS WILL
MAKE FOR A PLEASANTLY MILD DAY MARKED BY FULL SUN AND HIGHS IN THE
60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
A DECAYING SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER W TX
MONDAY, AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SHIELD OF HIGH-LEVEL
CIRROSTRATUS. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE RATON MESA IN
RESPONSE TO THE SUBTLE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 MPH BY PEAK HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, BUT REMAIN FAR BELOW ANY
RECORD VALUES. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, AS A NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEVELOPING REX BLOCK OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THE FIRST OF TWO POLAR
COLD FRONTS WILL ARRIVE SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY AND
CLEAR SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE SUNRISE, WITH BRISK, NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WERE RAISED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SPIKE IN PRESSURE TENDENCIES POST-FROPA,
WITH WINDS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SECOND
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY, AS THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD BE
A BIT WEAKER COMPARED TO THE FRONT THE DAY BEFORE. ANOTHER WARM-UP
WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE REX BLOCK TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN, WITH POPS REMAINING NIL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
VFR. A LAYER OF LOW STRATUS AND FZFG ABOUT 40NW OF PVW SHOULD REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING BY SUNDAY
MORNING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...93
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