822
FXUS64 KLUB 011729
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1129 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
- DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.
- TWO COLD FRONTS THIS WEEK WILL SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPERATURES,
HOWEVER REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTINENT WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY RESULTING IN WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT AND CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. LATER TODAY, A FLATTENING SHORTWAVE RIDGE
AXIS IS PROGGED TO BRIEFLY MOVE OVER THE WEST TX REGION AHEAD OF
MORE DIFFUSE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE NM
HIGH TERRAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL
ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW TO PERSIST TODAY, WHICH COMBINED
WITH FAIRLY DRAMATIC MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOWS TONIGHT ALSO FORECAST TO BE
RELATIVELY MILD GIVEN THE CONTINUING SW WINDS. ON MONDAY, THE
APPROACH OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT
IN THE DEEPENING AND SOUTHWARD EXPANSION OF LEE SURFACE TROUGHING.
THIS WILL IN TURN BRING US A RELATIVELY BREEZY AND EVEN WARMER DAY
ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S, ALTHOUGH WITH GENERALLY INCREASING CLOUD COVER GIVEN A
STRONGER SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW ALOFT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH TWO SEPARATE COLD
FRONTS PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEK. ON THE UPPER
LEVELS, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT TUESDAY AS A REX
BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH A HIGH OVER THE COAST OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND A LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA MEXICO. CONCURRENTLY, A
SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH THE FIRST COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH FOLLOWING THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
SLIGHTLY COOL, ALTHOUGH REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. BY MID-WEEK, AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH
WILL SWING OVER CENTRAL CONUS, PUSHING THE SECOND COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PREVAIL FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY COOL TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, THE REX BLOCKING PATTERN
WILL BREAK DOWN AND UPPER RIDGING WILL FILL IN OVER WESTERN CONUS.
THIS PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VIS NEAR KLBB AT TIME OF ISSUANCE WILL RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30
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