477
FXUS64 KLUB 021116
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
516 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH COLD FRONTS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WAS DEAMPLIFYING OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS, WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON ITS UPSTREAM
FLANK THAT WAS PIVOTING OVER BAJA CA. FARTHER NORTH, ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS, AND
WILL EJECT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS BY
SOLAR NOON MONDAY. CIRROSTRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA TODAY AS THE
BASAL TROUGH TRANSLATES THROUGH THE DAMPENED RIDGE, GENERATING WEAK,
LEEWARD PRESSURE FALLS AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
RATON MESA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH; AND DESPITE THE CIRRUS SHIELD ALOFT,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE-UPPER 60S AREA-WIDE. SOME
LOCALES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS MAY BREACH 70 DEGREES. THE GRADIENT
BREEZE WILL REMAIN INTACT INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS, WITH A SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN TX PH BEFORE MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL IMMEDIATELY
SWITCH TO THE NORTH POST-FROPA, WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE DUE TO POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES OF 6-7 MB/6
HR. LOCALIZED GUSTS MAY APPROACH 40 MPH ALONG THE LEE OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH CAA POST-FROPA WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON MORNING LOWS. WINDS WERE RAISED TO ALIGN WITH THE NBM 75TH
PERCENTILE FROM 15Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY, AS THE NBM WAS A BIT
UNDERDONE. HIGHS TODAY WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL BELOW RECORD VALUES.
SINCAVAGE
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS IN SHORT SUPPLY FOR THE LONG TERM AS BOTH
MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT LIFT STAY FAR AWAY. DAYBREAK TUESDAY OPENS
WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE HEELS OF AN EARLY-MORNING COLD
FRONT UNDERNEATH NW FLOW. JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF MODIFIED CP AIR
WILL COOL HIGHS OFF INTO THE LOWER 60S AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT BY DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LATTER FRONT WILL PRECEDE A MORE
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NNW FLOW THAT FOLDS H5 HEIGHTS BACK BY
60 METERS OR SO COMPARED TO TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE VERY LEAST WE
EXPECT AN UPTICK IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE, BUT
PROSPECTS FOR ENOUGH TOP-DOWN SATURATION FOR ANYTHING MORE ARE
LOOKING TOO MODEST AT THIS TIME. AFTER HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS, THE UPPER FLOW WANES
CONSIDERABLY AS A REX BLOCK (PREVIOUSLY ALONG THE WEST COAST) BREAKS
DOWN AND SENDS THE REMNANTS OF ITS RIDGE OUR WAY ALONG WITH A PLUME
OF ANOMALOUSLY MILD AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR
ABOVE 70 SHOULD BECOME COMMONPLACE FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER W TX KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS
FIRMLY INTACT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR FOG AT KLBB AND KPVW THIS MORNING
BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF
MORNINGS. OTHERWISE, VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING SHIFTING
WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING BREEZY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...01
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