939
FXUS64 KLUB 021957 CCA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
157 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
- DRY AND GENERALLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A ~1011 MB SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND
COMBINED WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
LEAD TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S WITH FEW SITES OFF THE CAPROCK LIKELY TO MAKE IT INTO THE
70S. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT AND INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHERLY
OVER THE COURSE OF A FEW HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 15 MPH
OVERNIGHT WILL MODERATE LOW TEMPERATURES, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE FAR SW PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 30S OFF THE CAPROCK. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY AND TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY. OVERALL COLD
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG AND HIGHS WILL ONLY DROP ABOUT 5-8
DEGREES FROM TODAY AND REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE, MOSTLY IN THE LOW
60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
A SECOND, STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH IT. MORE
POTENT UPPER FORCING AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD LEAD TO
SOMEWHAT STRONGER NORTHERLIES THAN TUESDAY, SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH
AND POTENTIALLY GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH. AGAIN, THE ASSOCIATED COOLER
AIRMASS WILL BE NOTHING LIKE LAST WEEK AND HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE MID 50S. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST ALONG WITH ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL DISPLACE THE AFOREMENTIONED FIRST TROUGH. WSW FLOW
DURING THE DAY WILL HELP TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, WITH WIDESPREAD 70S APPEARING MORE LIKELY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER BOTH GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UPPER LOW BECOMING CUTOFF AND MOVING OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. SHOULD THIS ALL COME TO FRUITION
AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE ENOUGH, WE WOULD ACTUALLY
SEE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OFF THE CAPROCK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OBVIOUSLY THINGS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE
BEFORE THEN AND IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANYTHING
SPECIFIC.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE THIS AFTERNOON,
WEAKENING NEAR SUNSET. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT (04-06Z), COMPLETE WITH AN ABRUPT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...23
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