955
FXUS64 KLUB 030604
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1204 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
- DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
A COLD FRONT WAS MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION
LATE MONDAY EVENING, WITH A PERIOD OF STRONGER POST-FRONTAL
NORTHERLY BREEZES SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS BROAD SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS SOUTHWARD, WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. REGARDING TEMPERATURES, EVEN
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, A LACK OF ANY PARTICULARLY COLD
AIR UPSTREAM COMBINED WITH NEUTRAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY POSITIVE
MIDLEVEL HEIGHT TENDENCIES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH
HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 60 DEGREES. THE MILD
THEME CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
30S AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT, MORE POTENT COLD FRONT EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A WELL-DEFINED REX BLOCK WILL REMAIN
PARKED OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND GREAT BASIN, WITH
AN AMPLIFYING, POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE BASE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO PIVOT OVER W TX, WITH THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY. BRISK WINDS ARE
EXPECTED POST-FROPA, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH FOR
MOST OF THE CWA AND GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WERE COOLED SLIGHTLY FROM THE NBM, AS THIS FRONT WILL BE OF POLAR
ORIGIN, ALTHOUGH THE CP AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATING SUBSTANTIALLY AS
THE BULK OF THE CAA REMAINS EAST OF THE CWA, WITH FULL INSOLATION
ALSO EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE
CAPROCK TO THE MIDDLE 50S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS, WITH THE COOLEST
LOCALES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CAPROCK. WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF AFTER SUNSET, AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
BENIGN AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THIS WEEKEND DUE TO A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN
TRANCHE OF THE REX BLOCK. THIS WILL CAUSE THE REX BLOCK TO COLLAPSE
AND TRANSITION INTO A LOW-AMPLITUDE, SHORTWAVE RIDGE BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
BETWEEN 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE INDICATIONS FOR THE DECAYED
LOW PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REX BLOCK TO REATTAIN DPVA FROM A
PV ANOMALY EMANATING FROM THE EXIT-REGION OF THE QUASI-ZONAL PACIFIC
JET EXTENSION. AN EVOLUTION INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WOULD FOLLOW,
BUT WHERE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT IN TIME. THE POSITION OF THE EVOLVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DICTATE POPS, IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS,
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, THE LOW POPS GENERATED BY THE NBM
HAVE BEEN LEFT INTACT WITH THIS PROGNOSTICATION DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE EVOLUTION.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
POST-FRONTAL NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER 18Z, THEN BECOME
LIGHT BY TUESDAY EVENING. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...30
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