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FXUS64 KLUB 031720
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH THE FA AS OF SUNRISE THIS
MORNING AND WILL HELP TO KEEP TODAY'S HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S AREA
WIDE. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE FA. WINDS
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE AND
THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY NOON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 15-25 MPH AFTER SUNSET AS MIXING IS ENHANCED
AND AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. UPPER FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY
MERIDIONAL BY THIS POINT AND WILL HELP TRANSPORT SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS THAN WHAT WAS SEEN WITH THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE FA WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY DECREASE AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BUILD IN BETWEEN TWO
TROUGHS ON THURSDAY AND ALONG WITH WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING
A RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 60S. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE
TROUGH TO THE WEST MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE SE. A SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS ON SATURDAY AND BREEZY SW SURFACE WINDS OVER
OUR AREA WILL BRING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S, WITH POTENTIAL 80S OFF
THE CAPROCK. THAT SAID, LUBBOCK'S DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 84 APPEARS
SAFE. MODEL AGREEMENT HAS GOTTEN WORSE SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE
ECMWF STILL INDICATING A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND LEADING TO WHAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GFS NOW INDICATES A MUCH
WEAKER LOW INTERACTING WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST. RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ARE AS WELL INDICATING CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY AND THUS NBM POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED. IN ANY CASE, ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS NEAR 70 LOOK TO CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS AT CDS AND PVW BETWEEN 06-12Z. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A
MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...51
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