257
FXUS64 KLUB 041101
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
501 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
- BREEZY AND A BIT COOLER WEDNESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY DAY COLD FRONT.
- CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LOW.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE TUESDAY EVENING HIGHLIGHTS A DEVELOPING REX
BLOCK TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WEST COAST AS A RELATIVELY COMPACT UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA AND A LARGER UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST TX TO VEER
MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHILE
ALSO BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER AREA-WIDE AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF PRE-DAWN SPRINKLE TO AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. POST-
FRONTAL NORTH WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO STRENGTHEN, BUT WILL
NEVERTHELESS REACH SOLIDLY BREEZY LEVELS BY MIDDAY WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH COLD
ADVECTION WILL NOT BE PARTICULARY NOTEWORTHY, THIS COLD FRONT WILL
STILL PACK A BIT MORE PUNCH THAN WHAT WE SAW ON TUESDAY, SO HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MODESTLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN BY SUNSET AS A ~1032 MB
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD, WITH CLEARING SKIES BRINGING A
SEASONABLY CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND IS ON TRACK,
WITH LITTLE CHANGE NECESSITATED WITH THIS PACKAGE. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK,
HOWEVER. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS WILL
FEATURE A COLLAPSING REX BLOCK OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND THE FAR
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN, WITH THE DECAYING CYCLONE EXPECTED TO
WOBBLE OFFSHORE BAJA SUR WHILE THE APEX OF THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT,
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE SHUNTING VERTICAL MIXING HEIGHTS AMIDST FULL
INSOLATION. AT THE SURFACE, AN EAST-WEST-ORIENTED TROUGH WILL BE
LOCATED ACROSS THE TX PH, WITH A WESTERLY BREEZE EXPECTED TO AID IN
BOOSTING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S; AND THE
SHUNTED MIXING HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM COMING
TO FRUITION. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO DRIFT INTO
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH FRONTOLYSIS NEARING ITS COMPLETION AS
IT ARRIVES. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO THE
NORTH, ALTHOUGH CAA WILL BE NIL, WITH FRIDAY MORNING LOWS 5-10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PRIOR MORNING, DEPENDING ON LOCALE. BENIGN
WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE REX
BLOCK HAVING COMPLETED ITS TRANSITION INTO A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE BY
FRIDAY. THE NET RISE IN GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AS THIS SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL
REMAIN WELL-SHORT OF PRIOR RECORDS DESPITE THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH.
GLOBAL NWP GUIDANCE REMAINS BIFURCATED ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
DECAYED CYCLONE OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE IS A CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO
A NET INCREASE IN DPVA EMANATING FROM THE EXIT-REGION OF THE PACIFIC
JET EXTENSION AND INDUCING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS, IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME AND
WHETHER OR NOT A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE
DISPARITY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DIG, WITH DIFFERENCES
ON THE ORDER OF SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ERGO, DISCREPANCIES FOR THE
QPF FOOTPRINT EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAIN INTACT ACROSS THE REGION. NBM
POPS HAVE BEEN RETAINED, BUT HAVE OTHERWISE BEEN CAPPED AT SLIGHT
CHANCE (20-PERCENT), AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE EVOLUTION WOULD
FOSTER WAA-INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS GIVEN THE INCREASING DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PIPELINE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER,
THIS IS A MATTER OF WHETHER OR NOT IT OCCURS OVER THE CWA OR FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IN POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS LOW WITH THIS PROGNOSTICATION DUE TO LIMITED PREDICTABILITY.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
VFR WITH N WINDS INCREASING TO 20G30KT BY LATE MORNING AT LBB AND
PVW BEFORE TAPERING THIS EVENING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...93
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