121
FXUS64 KLUB 041716
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1116 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
- BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH TROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
THIS IS SLIGHTLY MORE POTENT THAN THE ONE YESTERDAY AND A STRONGER
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN ITS
WAKE. SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
PEAK UP TO 25 MPH WITH PERIODIC GUSTS POTENTIALLY TO 35 MPH. AS
SUCH, HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS DEPARTS TO THE SE. A COOLER
AND QUIET OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS, CLEAR SKIES AND
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S. AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO BECOME MORE WELL-DEFINED THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DEPARTING TROUGH
AND AN INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH. IN CONJUCTION WITH A RETURN OF DUE
WESTERLY WINDS, HIGHS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE UPPER
60S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW 70S OFF THE CAPROCK UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY EVENING, A REX BLOCK
PATTERN WILL BE GRADUALLY COLLAPSING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. AS IT COLLAPSES, THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WILL
WOBBLE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA WHILE THE RIDGE
DEAMPLIFIES AND MOVES OVER THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. PRIOR TO THE
RIDGE, A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT, HOWEVER THIS FRONT WILL BE INEFFECTIVE IN LOWERING
TEMPERATURES, WITH LOW'S FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO BE 5-10
DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OVERHEAD
INCREASING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS THIS WEEKEND IN TANDEM WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70'S. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT OF RECORDS.
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN ON GLOBAL NWP
GUIDANCE. WHILE BOTH CURRENTLY AGREE ON A CLOSED LOW THIS WEEKEND
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA, WITH DPVA OVER THE CWA IN SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW, CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS IN THE WEAKENING AND
PHASING OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE ECMWF
KEEPS A MORE COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WEST TX MONDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY, WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE CYCLONE SUBSTANTIALLY
QUICKER WITH A SHALLOWER SHORTWAVE. THE FORMER SOLUTION (ECMWF)
WOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
WHILE THE GFS WOULD RESULT IN VERY LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. WITH
THIS SPREAD, CONFIDENCE IN POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS LOW. NBM
PRECIP PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED BUT ARE CURRENTLY LOW (SUB
20%) FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PEAK AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR WILL CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....BLT
AVIATION...19
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