035
FXUS64 KLUB 051132
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
532 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
WARMER WEATHER WILL MAKE A QUICK COMEBACK THURSDAY AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RELATIVELY CHILLY WEDNESDAY SWIFTLY
EXITS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE A GENERAL RESULT OF THE
BEGINNING OF THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST COAST
ON THURSDAY. THE CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST WILL
GRADUALLY OPEN AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A SHARP TROUGH AXIS TO ITS
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING DISLODGED
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTERING MORE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS. ALL
THIS TO SAY, FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST TX WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN A
NOTABLY WARMER DAY THURSDAY COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AREA-WIDE UNDER SUNNY SKIES, DESPITE A
VEERING OF WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH PASSES BY. WEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET BUT
WILL NEVERTHELESS CONTINUE, RESULTING IN A MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND,
WITH LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE CWA MONDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, THE
DEMISE OF THE REX BLOCK OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND FAR NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN WILL HAVE BEEN WELL UNDERWAY, WITH THE RESPECTIVE
CYCLONE HAVING TRANSITIONED INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AS ITS BASE DIGS
INTO BAJA CA. FARTHER EAST, THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED BENEATH THE
DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE RIDGE, WITH ANOMALOUS WARMTH EXPECTED FRIDAY
AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. DESPITE TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, HIGHS, AS MENTIONED IN
THE PRIOR DISCUSSIONS, WILL BE WELL-SHORT OF RECORD VALUES AT CDS
AND LBB. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE BENIGN FRIDAY,
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, DUE TO THE DEARTH IN WINDS ALOFT AS
THE BELT OF SUPERGEOSTROPHIC FLOW REMAINS DISLODGED OVER THE 49TH
PARALLEL AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL ESTABLISH
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO LARGE-SCALE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS FROM A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE. THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WILL DO
LITTLE TO COOL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, AS THE CWA WILL REMAIN BENEATH
THE EASTWARD SHIFTING RIDGE, ALTHOUGH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
ONCE AGAIN FORECAST AREA-WIDE SUNDAY.
GLOBAL NWP GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT ON THE STATE
OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, IN LARGE PART
FROM DOZENS OF DROPSONDES LAUNCHED FROM A NOAA SURVEILLANCE AIRCRAFT
CONDUCTING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MISSIONS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE PRIOR UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
WHETHER OR NOT THE OPEN TROUGH REMAINS OPEN OR DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW
AS IT PIVOTS OVER BAJA CA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO, AND HOW FAR SOUTH
THE TROUGH DIGS INTO MEXICO, HAS LESSEND. IT APPEARS THAT THE
RESIDUAL VORTICITY LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE FROM THE PRIOR
REX BLOCK WILL NOT DECAY ENTIRELY AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WHILE
OFFSHORE BAJA CA. THIS WILL AID IN CYCLOGENESIS SURFACE-TO-ALOFT AS
THE UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY SHEARS OFF FROM THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND INTERACTS WITH
THE SHALLOW TROUGH AND REMNANT LOW. THE BULK OF THE GLOBAL NWP
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE GENESIS OF A COMPACT, MID-LEVEL CYCLONE
TO FORM NEAR BAJA CA BY SATURDAY. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF THE VORTEX
POTENTIALLY ASCENDING THROUGH THE 300 MB LAYER WHILE REMAINING
FAIRLY WELL-ALIGNED AS IT ROTATES INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY MONDAY.
THE LOW POPS GENERATED BY THE NBM FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BEING CAPPED AT SLIGHT CHANCE, AS
THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO YIELD A LIMITED
COVERAGE OF WAA-INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS. ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT OCCUR
DURING THE NIGHTTIME WILL BE ELEVATED AND FAST-MOVING AS THE JET
STREAK(S) ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND NOSE INTO W TX, WHICH
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO A NEUTRAL-TILT. QPF SHOULD BE LIMITED WITH THIS
EVENT, WITH BETTER PROSPECTS FOR RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CWA. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE
OPENS AS THE TROUGH EJECTS INTO W TX TUESDAY, WHICH WILL GOVERN WHEN
THE DRY SLOT ARRIVES AND THE ALREADY-LOW RAIN CHANCES SHIFT EASTWARD
ALTOGETHER. OTHERWISE, THICK CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE MODIFYING PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT ADVECTS INTO W TX, WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR WITH BREEZY WESTERLIES DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...93
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