189
FXUS64 KLUB 051724
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1124 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO MID-NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION FOLLOWING A VERY SUBTLE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST BY SUNRISE FRIDAY, GRADUALLY BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. UPPER
RIDGING WILL BREAK FREE FROM THE BLOCKING PATTERN TO OUR WEST BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL WARM
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON THE CAPROCK AND
LOW/MID 70S OFF THE CAPROCK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL SLOW BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD ALL DAY FRIDAY, HELPING TO WARM HIGHS INTO THE 70S AREA
WIDE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AN UPPER
LOW TRACKS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO FLATTEN
THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF RELATIVELY LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
AND WINDS WILL THEREFORE INCREASE OUT OF THE SW BRINGING WELL-
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS. DESPITE THE RIDGE NOT BEING AS PRONOUNCED,
HEIGHTS EXCEEDING ~576 DM WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 70S. A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE TROUGH
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM SW TO NE. THIS WILL
HOWEVER HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES AS UPPER HEIGHTS
REMAIN SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL
BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND MOVE ONSHORE OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA, TRACKING EASTWARD ON MONDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS
COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING IT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PREVIOUS ITERATIONS. GFS HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION
SHOWING THE LOW BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AND MOVING MORE QUICKLY OVER
OUR AREA TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT AS A CLOSED LOW OVER
CHIHUAHUA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING (WHICH WOULD BRING A GREATER
CHANCE OF RAIN). PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE OFF TO THE EAST AFTER THE LOW EVOLVES INTO A MORE BROAD
TROUGH, HOWEVER GIVEN THE MOISTURE/VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF
WHATEVER FORM THE LOW TAKES, RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN RETAINED FOR
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER A MID-WEEK LULL, A POTENTIALLY
LARGER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATER NEXT WEEK BUT DETAILS
REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...51
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