810
FXUS64 KLUB 061117
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
517 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
- WARM AND BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A LOW POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS REMAINS INTACT FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHILE REMAINING WARM.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
QUIET AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LARGE-
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE
MIDWEEK REX BLOCK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THE RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO CENTER DIRECTLY OVER THE WEST TX REGION ON FRIDAY, WITH
THE RESULTING MIDLEVEL HEIGHT INCREASES AND 850MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C
WARMER THAN THURSDAY BOOSTING HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREA-WIDE, WITH A FEW LOW 80S ALSO LOOKING
LIKELY OFF THE CAPROCK. PLEASANTLY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE RIDGING PERSISTS TO OUR SOUTH. FRIDAY
EVENING, A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE
REGION FROM THE, BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN A SHIFT TO LIGHT
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE AVERAGE
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
THE REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL HAVE REACHED EXTINCTION BY
SATURDAY, WITH A SOUTHERN-STREAM, NEUTRALLY-TILTING, SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FORECAST TO PIVOT OVER NORTHERN BAJA CA. A CLOSED, MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH; AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD
ASCENT THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE STEERING LAYER (I.E., 850-300 MB)
WHILE REMAINING COMPACT. THE IMPLICATIONS OF A COMPACT CYCLONE
ASCENDING THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE STEERING LAYER TYPICALLY LEADS
TO SEMI-ORGANIZED OR ORGANIZED BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (IN THIS CASE,
RAIN) OVER A SMALL GEOSPATIAL AREA, ALL OF WHICH WILL GOVERN POPS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVER THE WEEKEND, BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED,
WITH RETURN FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AS LEEWARD
PRESSURE FALLS ENSUE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. ANOMALOUS WARMTH
REMAINS FORECAST, WITH HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, AS THE DEAMPLIFYING, MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED
IN PRIOR FORECAST DISCUSSIONS, DESPITE THE ANOMALOUS WARMTH, HIGHS
WILL REMAIN FAR BELOW RECORD VALUES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE CWA SUNDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE; AND A
GRADUAL THICKENING OF A HIGH-LEVEL OVERCAST CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS TOWARDS W TX.
GLOBAL NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT PIVOTS EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO
BY MONDAY. MOIST, ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL HAVE ALREADY BEEN PRESENT
OVER THE WEEKEND (I.E., THICKENING CIRRUS SHIELD), BUT GRADUAL
MOISTENING OF THE MID-LEVEL THETA SURFACES WILL OCCUR MONDAY AS THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE 700 MB TROUGH ARRIVES. HIGH-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE BY LATE-DAY MONDAY AS THE 300 MB JET STREAK
NOSES INTO W TX, WITH PROSPECTS FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. NBM POPS HAVE CREPT UPWARD FROM
PREVIOUS INITIALIZATIONS, BUT POPS HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT 30-PERCENT,
OR A CHANCE, AS THE BULK OF THE MOIST, ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD
REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WAA-INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALONG THE
THETA-E TONGUE, WITH THE SHOWERS REMAINING ELEVATED.
AREA-AVERAGED SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY
WEAK CAPE, OR NEAR 200 J/KG, TO ADVECT THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. SO, THERE IS A SLIM POTENTIAL FOR
UPDRAFTS TO BECOME HIGH ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR
TWO, BUT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN WITHHELD FROM THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING. QPF WILL BE
LIGHT WITH THIS EVENT, AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN. THE CONSENSUS
OVER THE PRIOR FORECAST ASSESSMENTS REMAINS STEADY, WITH A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST A LIGHT FOOTPRINT OF RAIN FOR SOME
LOCALES, PRIMARILY IN THE EASTERN ZONES. A COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS
SYSTEM, BUT IT WILL BE UNDERGOING FRONTOLYSIS AS IT REMOVES BENEATH
THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE RIDGE FROM THE WEST. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
FOR MID-WEEK, WITH AN INKLING OF POPS RETURNING BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...93
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