255
FXUS64 KLUB 061730
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
- WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
THE FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS,
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRANSLATES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND AN CUTOFF
LOW DEVELOPS OVER BAJA MEXICO. LOCALLY, WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE THAT STRETCHES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE, NOT MUCH TO REPORT WEATHER WISE ACROSS
OUR AREA WITH THE MAIN THEME BEING MILD TEMPERATURES AND SHORT WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. DESPITE THE WEAK FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING, INCREASED THICKNESS AND HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD
TO THE WARM UP OF HIGHS INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES AS ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE PREVAILS. TONIGHT, QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS WE
DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S AS WINDS ATTEMPT TO VEER OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE
WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTHERLY AS A BACKDOOR FRONT
ATTEMPTS TO CREEP INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. OVERALL, THIS FRONT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE
INFLUENCE FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN THE 70S FOR MOST. WENT AHEAD AND NUDGED
SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM THE NBM FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
AFTER A RELATIVELY DRY WEEK, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AS THE CUTOFF LOW TRACKS
INTO THE SOUTHERN DESERT SOUTHWEST. AHEAD OF THE LOW, A WEAK
PERTURBATION TRACKING THROUGH THE FLOW INTO THE REGION WILL INTERACT
WITH THE INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION
VIA SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT, ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING TRACKING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
FAIRLY QUITE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PACKAGE AS THE FA GENERALLY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE H5
UPPER RIDGE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
CUTOFF LOW, CURRENTLY OVER BAJA MEXICO, TRANSLATES EASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PORTRAY
A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS EARLIER THIS WEEK,
DEPICTING THE CLOSED LOW TO BECOME AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE AS IT
CENTERS ITSELF NEAR THE HILL COUNTRY. IF THIS SOUTHERN TRACK COMES
TO FRUITION, WE WILL LIKELY SEE LIMITED CHANCES FOR POPS AS THE MAIN
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF
THE FA. NBM SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ON WITH THIS SOLUTION, COMING IN
WITH POPS AROUND 30% TO 40%, ALTHOUGH THAT SEEMS A BIT AGRESSIVE
GIVEN THE EVOLVING SOUTHERN TRACK BY MODELS. WENT AHEAD AND CONFINED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) TO CHANCE (30), GENERALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. AS THIS EVENT GETS CLOSER, COVERAGE AND
CHANCE OF POPS MAY NEED TO BE ALTERED EVEN LOWER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION BEING PROVIDED. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE SLIGHT DECREASE IN HEIGHTS WILL KEEP HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREAFTER, DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. RESULTING IN DAILY SLIGHT INCREASES IN
THICKNESS AND HEIGHT VALUES ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
STEADY IN THE 70S THROUGH THURSDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HINTS AT A SHORTWAVE FEATURE ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT
PLAINS, SWINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. NOT ONLY COULD THIS SYSTEM BRING COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION, BUT ALSO HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR OUR NEXT BIG
PRECIPITATION EVENT. CONSIDERING THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND
MODELS ARE A BIT ALL OVER THE PLACE, WE WILL MAINTAIN NBM
MENTIONABLE POPS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY UNTIL WE SEE A
BETTER CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING
LIGHT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND TO
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOW CIGS AND VISBYS NEAR KCDS ON SATURDAY
MORNING AROUND DAYBREAK BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAF AT THE MOMENT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...01
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