329
FXUS64 KLUB 070540
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1140 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
- WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
WELL AS NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
SHOULD BE A QUIET AND WARM DAY. SATURDAY WILL START OUT WITH UPPER
RIDGING OVERHEAD IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
MEXICO AND A SECONDARY UPPER LOW SWINGING OVER NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION SLIGHTLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. MODELS INDICATE A DRIER
SATURDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AS THE LOW TO THE WEST
SHIFTS, SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FILL IN OVERHEAD. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WERE FORECASTED TO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AS
A SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, MODELS INDICATE THE
SHORTWAVE WILL GET ABSORBED INTO NORTHERLY FLOW BEFORE REACHING THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THEREFORE, WE CAN EXPECT A DRY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE 70S AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE HELP OF BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
AS STRATUS FILLS IN ACROSS THE REGION, HINDERING RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
THE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN
CHANCES. THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL START WITH A WARM AND QUIET
SUNDAY, SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL PUSH OVER LAND MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO
TRANSLATE NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR REGION. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
FILL IN OVERHEAD WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW TRANSITIONING INTO AN OPEN SHORT WAVE
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS BY TUESDAY. SADLY, THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION.
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS, NBM CONTINUES TO DECREASE POPS FOR
LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS. IF
MODELS CONTINUE WITH THIS PROGRESSION, CAN EXPECT POPS TO DECREASE
EVEN MORE FOR FUTURE FORECASTS. FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE
UPPER SHORT WAVE, SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING WILL TAKE OVER GIVING WAY
TO DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND "COOLER" TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES OVER THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE REGION
THROUGH MID- WEEK. CURRENTLY, ECMWF HAS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING
OVER THE REGION WHILE GFS HAS THE TROUGH DEAMPLIFYING JUST BEFORE
REACHING THE CWA. IF THE ECMWF PROGRESSION OCCURS, WE COULD SEE
THE RETURN OF RAIN SHOWERS TO START THE WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS
TRACK WOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY. AT THIS TIME, NBM HAS MODERATE
CHANCES FOR RAIN BEGINNING FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH CAN EXPECT CHANGES IN
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THIS IS STILL A WEEK OUT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...51
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