058
FXUS64 KLUB 072303
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
503 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 502 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE CAPROCK
SATURDAY EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
WELL AS NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
LATE MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY DISPLAYS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WHILE OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA MEXICO A CUTOFF LOW SPIRALS SOUTHEASTWARD, WHERE IT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO CENTRAL MEXICO TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT OF THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN, GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE REGION. ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CAPROCK REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED. DESPITE THIS, AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK MAY
SEE TEMPERATURES ONE TO TWO DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
THANKS TO A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER
THIS MORNING. REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAINS NEARLY 15
TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY.
A SIMILAR REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER DAY OF
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS, IN FACT A FEW DEGREES WARMER AROUND 70 TO 80
DEGREES, AS HEIGHTS INCREASE DESPITE THE FLATTENING RIDGE IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH, WE ARE STILL
HOLDING ONTO THE HOPE FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAPROCK
LATE THIS EVENING. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE H8 TO H5 LEVEL WILL
WORK TO AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WHILE
SIMULTANEOUSLY A PERTURBATION OUT AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION. AS THIS IMPULSE TRACKS THROUGH, IT MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH ASCENT FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR
SPRINKLES. ALTHOUGH LACK OF DEEPER SATURATION NOTED BY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WILL LIMIT ANY BENEFICIAL TOTALS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE LONG-TERM PACKAGE WITH THE MAIN MESSAGE
BEING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED, WE WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW FROM THE WEST
MOVING IN AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE FEATURE AS IT MOVES INTO
THE HILL COUNTRY. MODEL GUIDANCES CONTINUES TO VARY WITH EACH RUN,
THE LATEST RUN (12Z) OF THE GFS IS NOW PORTRAYING A SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERN TRACK COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS (06Z) RUN.
WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES WITH A SIMILAR TRACK IN BOTH THE 00Z AND
12Z RUNS, NOW THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE TWO GLOBAL GUIDANCES.
AS A RESULT OF THE RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES, CONFIDENCE REMAINS PRETTY
LOW IN REGARDS TO POPS BEGINNING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. POPS WERE ONCE
AGAIN CAPPED TO SLIGHT CHANCE (25%), GIVEN THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS
STILL A DRIER SOLUTION, ALTHOUGH POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TRACK THAT COMES TO FRUITION.
THIS SYSTEM WILL EJECT OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING,
ALLOWING FOR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST TO SLIDE BACK IN
PLACE COME WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR AREA. IN FACT,
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEAK, THIS WILL BE
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WAA VIA THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED AS A LEE SIDE LOW DIGS INTO THE PANHANDLE. EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE CAPROCK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REGULATE A FEW DEGREES BOTH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS SWING THROUGH THE REGION, ALTHOUGH
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. AS WE HEAD
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES ARE KEYING
IN ON THE POTENTIAL OF THE RETURN OF COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS AS
A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TRACKS INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, IT IS A BIT EARLY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS AS A LOT OF THIS
WILL DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AS WELL AS HOW MUCH MOISTURE
RETURN WE CAN SEE BACK INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR
NOW, WILL MAINTAIN THE COOLER NBM HIGHS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WELL AS NBM MENTIONABLE POPS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 502 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...51
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