098
FXUS64 KLUB 081132
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
532 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
- RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND AGAIN THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE FA AS OF 9 PM AHEAD OF AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. RADAR RETURNS ARE VERY LIMITED AT THE MOMENT
BUT SHOULD GROW SLIGHTLY AS BETTER LIFT MOVES OVER THE REGION INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NO RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED AS REACHING THE
GROUND SO FAR IN THE FA AND IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF 30+ DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE AND BETTER LIFT BEING LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST. WE SHOULD SEE SOME TOP-DOWN MOISTENING AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES WITH SPRINKLES BEING POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE
FIZZLES OUT AND CEASES TO EXIST. THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING IS RELATIVELY QUIET. THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA AS UPPER RIDGING
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEST TEXAS. A SECONDARY UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES, WILL
BRING A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY SUNRISE AND
BE SOUTH OF THE FA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE MOST NOTABLE COOLING OF
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE MONDAY MORNING'S LOWS WHICH WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN WHAT WE SHOULD SEE BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THIS
COOLING WILL ALSO BE ATTRIBUTED TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AS SKIES WILL
ALSO BE CLEARER THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
NO CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN FORECASTED. TO START
OFF THE WORK WEEK, UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALOFT MONDAY, ALTHOUGH
WILL BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE EAST AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW TRANSLATES
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY MONDAY AS
SLIGHT THICKNESS INCREASES AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL AID IN WARMING HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY. WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM, FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
USHERING IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. MODELS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS UPPER SYSTEM WITH
BOTH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH
BEFORE CLIPPING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER, THE MODELS
DIFFER IN TIMING WITH ECMWF HAVING A FASTER PROGRESSION COMPARED TO
GFS. ON THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO
SUFFICIENT LOW TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT, RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, CAN
ALSO EXPECT "COOLER" TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM DEPARTS FROM THE REGION, ZONAL
FLOW WILL TAKE OVER ALOFT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MODELS
INDICATING A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH TRANSLATING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TOWARDS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER, AS THIS IS A LITTLE UNDER A WEEK OUT, CONFIDENCE AT THE
MOMENT IS LOW AND CAN EXPECT CHANGES IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
VFR WITH LIGHT W WINDS VEERING NNE THIS AFTERNOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...93
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