512
FXUS64 KLUB 090600
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1200 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEK, AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER RIDGING AND RELAXED SURFACE GRADIENT
DOMINATING. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL HELP TO TIGHTEN
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE FA, ALLOWING
FOR BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY NATURE OF THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE 70S ON THE CAPROCK AND 80S OFF THE CAPROCK WITH
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
COUPLED WITH ERCS IN THE 70-90TH PERCENTILE, THIS WILL CREATE
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER. THE HIGHEST FIRE DANGER WILL
BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST
AND RH WILL BE LOWEST. WHILE RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL AT
BEST, IT IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT UPGRADING THE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING. A RFD WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE REST OF
THE FA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY SUNSET AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
SUNSET, ENTERING OUR NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY BY SUNRISE AND SOUTH OF
THE FA BY NOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
OCCASIONALLY WET WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE
MAIN MESSAGE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE. BY THE START OF
THE PERIOD, THE STUBBORN UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE BEGUN SHIFTING
EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW FROM CENTRAL
MEXICO. UNFORTUNATELY, GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS WE HAD HOPED LEADING TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST STILL IN REGARDS SPECIFICALLY TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TUESDAY. AS IT STANDS, THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE
QUICKER AND MORE NORTHERN MODEL TRACK COMPARED TO THE GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE COME IN SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY IN
TRACK. REGARDLESS, ONE THING ALL THREE SOLUTIONS SEEM TO HAVE IN
COMMON IS THAT THE CORE OF THE H5 JET WILL BE POSITIONED SOUTH OF
THE FA, LIMITING THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM FOR THE REGION. NONETHELESS, FLOW ALOFT (FROM H8 TO
H5) WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND AID IN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. ADDITIONALLY,
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALSO BE WORKING IN TANDEM WITH FLOW
ALOFT TO DRAWL IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE FA, WITH
GUIDANCE HINTING AT A TONGUE OF THETA-E STRETCHING INTO PORTIONS
OF THE CAPROCK REGIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN MOST
LARGE SCALE ASCENT LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE FA, LIFT
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME FROM TUESDAY'S FROPA AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED AT THE 305K LEVEL. DEPENDING ON WHAT TRACK
THIS SYSTEM TAKES, WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED, BUT GIVEN THE RECENT MODEL RUNS THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE FOR POPS ACROSS OUR AREA COMPARED TO THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. IN FACT, MOS GUIDANCE HAS NEARLY TRIPLED FOR POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NOW HIGHLIGHTING
LARGER PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 0.01" OF RAINFALL. THEREFORE,
WILL GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD NBM MENTIONABLE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE CAPROCK REGIONS WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FIXATED ACROSS OUR MOST SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES WHERE
BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. WE WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT
MID-WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AS THE SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN.
HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE WEEKEND BRINGING RENEWED
CHANCES FOR MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE REGION SATURDAY. NBM
SEEMS TO BE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING AS SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TRACK THROUGH, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN.
WILL GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN NBM MENTIONABLE POPS BEGINNING THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN
FUTURE FORECASTS AS THIS EVENT GETS CLOSER AND CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, UNSEASONABLY WARM WILL BE THE MAIN THEME AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AS THE FA REMAINS POSITIONED BENEATH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL LOWS TRACK INTO THE REGION. NONETHELESS, ABOVE NORMAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
LEADING TO DAILY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE "COOLEST" DAYS OF THE
WEEK, WHICH WILL BE IN PART TO A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN LATE THURSDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL EXIST TODAY ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10-20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WARM TEMPERATURES HELP TO
DROP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. AS FUELS
ARE RELATIVELY DRY, THIS WARRANTS FOR THE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH A RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CST MONDAY FOR TXZ021-022-027.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...51
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