906
FXUS64 KLUB 091740
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1140 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
- WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
- COOLER ON TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY-DAY COLD FRONT, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING HIGHLIGHTS A FAIRLY DEEP
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA, WITH PLENTIFUL HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE APEX OF
A SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE BIG BEND. SURFACE
TROUGHING OVER SE CO WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW ON THE
BREEZY SIDE TODAY, AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON REACHING THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY WARM TONIGHT BY FEBRUARY STANDARDS AS LOWS ONLY FALL INTO THE
40S AND 50S AS SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES AND CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.
TONIGHT, THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO OPEN
AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD, WITH GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
LOW WILL REMAIN LARGELY OVER NORTHERN MX THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY
BEFORE EMERGING INTO TX AS AN OPEN WAVE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TO SATURATE
QUICKLY, BUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY LOOKS ABSENT OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION GIVEN WHAT WILL BE A NOTABLE DRY LAYER FROM
THE SURFACE UP TO ABOUT 700MB. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WELL TO
THE SOUTH OF EL PASO, FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. HOWEVER, SOME VERY
MODEST DIFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 JET STREAK COMBINED
WITH WEAK POST-FRONTAL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND TOP-DOWN MOISTENING IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY EVENING. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM MORTON TO FLOYDADA TO CHILDRESS WITH LESSER COVERAGE
FARTHER NORTH, BUT EVEN SO, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT
WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY SEEING A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR LESS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY, ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE UPPER WAVE RAPIDLY WEAKENS AND EXITS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM.
LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LEAD TO A PLEASANT DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY
AND INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW IN PART FOR TEMPERATURES
TO INCREASE 10 TO 15 DEGREES, RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE EAST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
BY FRIDAY MORNING AND HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT
ALONG WITH FAVORABLE FORCING VIA JET DYNAMICS LOOKS TO BRING LIKELY
RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
ECMWF SHOWS A MORE ORGANIZED LOW BEGINNING TO OCCLUDE OVER OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A MORE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
OVER THE REGION AND RAIN ENDING A BIT SOONER WHEREAS GFS SHOWS THIS
OCCURRING MUCH LATER AND FARTHER EAST. AS SUCH, SPECIFIC AMOUNTS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING. A
RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN BY SUNDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY, THEN TURN MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING
A SHIFT TO STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. VFR
WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
BREEZY AND VERY WARM WEATHER WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOW AS
9 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON OVER MOST
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP
TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR PARMER, CASTRO, AND COCHRAN COUNTIES WITH A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE REGION. TONIGHT,
WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 15 MPH WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE WESTERLY, AND OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL BE RELATIVELY POOR,
AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT TO
NORTHEAST WINDS JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021-022-027.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page