243
FXUS64 KLUB 100534
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1134 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
- COLD FRONT THIS MORNING WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY.
- HIGH CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. THESE BREEZY WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL IN THE 40S TO 50S. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT
IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH KANSAS AS OF 11 PM. IF IT DOESN'T HIT
ANY BUMPS IN THE ROAD, THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO REACH THE NORTHERN
BORDER OF THE CWA AROUND SUNRISE. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, BREEZY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY, ALTHOUGH REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
PASSING OF AN UPPER SYSTEM. FLOW ALOFT SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST
MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKED OVER BAJA MEXICO. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING USHERING MID
TO UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE
CURRENT TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM HAS IT PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR REGION, DIFFLUENCE FROM A PASSING UPPER JET, LINGERING
ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE FROPA, AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY END BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM EXITS AWAY FROM
THE REGION. TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. HOWEVER, CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS, THEREFORE WILL SEE A WIDE
RANGE OF LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO LOWER 40S FOR THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM EARLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL STILL
BE A RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH MOSTLY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
DURING THE DAYTIME. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY STILL EXERTING SOME INFLUENCE OVER
WEST TEXAS. RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY DRAWING IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL THEN MOVE
OVERHEAD. WE WILL SEE FURTHER RISING OF HEIGHTS ON THURSDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY WILL
INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE INCREASE IN HEIGHTS
AND DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY BOOST TEMPERATURES
TO VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THERE STILL EXISTS MUCH RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY REGARDING THE UPPER
LOW TO AFFECT THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THIS WEEK LIKELY
STEMMING FROM THE FACT THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL HANGING OUT IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE AI-GEFS SHOWS FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK AS WELL. ONE THING THAT DOES LOOK
FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THAT THERE WILL BE NO RELATIVELY COLD AIR TO BE
FOUND WHICH WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM THE WINTRY TYPE. A
COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES, OTHERWISE, WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK
OVERHEAD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
AROUND SUNRISE GIVING WAY TO BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...10
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