314
FXUS64 KLUB 102315
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
515 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS. ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
- HIGH CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARE FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE RAIN, BUT THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER MEXICO.
BASED ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, MUCH OF THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE
PARAMETERS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA AS IS REFLECTED WITH LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY AND WHAT IS PRESENTLY SHOWING UP OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS IS LARGELY NOT EVEN REACHING THE GROUND. THAT SAID,
RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN RETAINED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR THIS
AREA UNTIL THE LOW-LEVEL JET COMPLETELY DEPARTS, ALTHOUGH TOTALS
WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. NE WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY, HOWEVER ABOVE-AVERAGE HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED, GENERALLY
IN THE LOW-TO-MID 60S. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SW PANHANDLE AND THIS IS WHERE COOLEST
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S WILL OCCUR. MOST ELSEWHERE WILL FALL
INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 30S. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND
GENERALLY PERSIST OUT OF THE SSE. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION AND SOME HIGHER CLOUD COVER MAY DEVELOP OVER THE PANHANDLE.
OVERALL HOWEVER, A PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE
LOW-TO-MID 60S. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
HIGH CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL REMAIN INTACT FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS WILL FEATURE A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS,
WITH AN AMPLIFYING, POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A CIRRUS
SHIELD WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION THURSDAY, WITH WARM AND BENIGN
WEATHER EXPECTED OTHERWISE. RESTORATION OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE
WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO WEAK, LEEWARD PRESSURE FALLS GENERATED BY
AN ILL-DEFINED, SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TRANSLATING THROUGH THE APEX OF
THE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE-UPPER 70S
FOR MOST OF THE CWA, WITH SOME LOCALES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
BREACHING 80 DEGREES. DESPITE THE WARM TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL BE
WELL-SHORT OF ANY PREVIOUS RECORDS AT CDS AND LBB. THE OVERCAST WILL
CONTINUE TO THICKEN FROM THE MOISTENING OF THE MID-LEVEL ISENTROPES
AHEAD OF THE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AS IT BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LEADING BAND OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT EMERGES OVER W TX, WITH COVERAGE OF
RAIN STEADILY INCREASING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE REMAINS
SOME DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE GLOBAL NWP GUIDANCE AS TO WHETHER OR
NOT THE TROUGH IS OPEN AS IT PIVOTS INTO W TX OR IF A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS. THE LATTER EVOLUTION WOULD FACILITATE A BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR DEFORMATION BANDING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH CROSSES OVER W TX. THIS WOULD, IN TURN, PROLONG THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CWA DUE TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. EVEN IF THE TROUGH REMAINS OPEN,
THE RAIN SHIELD SHOULD LINGER BEYOND DUSK SATURDAY, WITH POPS
FORECAST TO WANE ALTOGETHER DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME, THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS HAS INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ASSESSMENTS; HOWEVER, CAPE WILL BE LIMITED, AT AROUND A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG AT BEST, AND MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ESSENTIALLY NIL. NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
BLUSTERY, NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST SATURDAY, AS THE SURFACE
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT, COMBINED WITH THE RAINFALL AND DENSE CLOUD COVER, MAY RESULT
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO WHAT IS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE SUNDAY, WITH A RETURN TO FULL INSOLATION AND LIGHT WINDS AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. DRY AND
WARM WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01
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