719
FXUS64 KLUB 111111
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
511 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
- MILD, BUT UNSEASONABLY WARM WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 11 PM SHOWS THE REMAINING SHOWERS FROM THIS
EVENING HAVE DIMINISHED. THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
QUIET AND COLD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM UPPER 20S OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO LOWER 40S OVER SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER SYSTEM THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS MOVED EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION GIVING
WAY FOR MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER RIDGING FILLS IN OVERHEAD.
SLIGHT HEIGHT INCREASES WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
COMPARED TO TUESDAY, HOWEVER ONLY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WITH HIGHS
AROUND THE MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGING. TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
HIGH CHANCES OF RAIN CONTINUE TO EXIST LATE THIS WEEK FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. UNTIL THEN, THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A VERY WARM
DAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK. THIS LOW WILL STILL BE IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC ON THURSDAY OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
DIRECTION BOOSTING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOWER
80S OFF THE CAPROCK OR ABOUT 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MID FEBRUARY. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS ON
THE TRACK THIS SYSTEM WILL TAKE ONCE IT MOVES ONSHORE. HOWEVER,
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD SO CHANCES REMAIN HIGH.
AT THE MOMENT BASED ON ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDER
CHANCES ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, WINTRY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE NIL WITH ANY COLD AIR BOTTLED UP IN
CANADA. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY USHERING IN
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE LOOK TO ENTER A MORE CLASSIC DRY SEASON PATTERN
WITH SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGHING EVERY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS, WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND POSSIBLY
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...51
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