373
FXUS64 KLUB 111720
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
- SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY. BROAD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OUT
OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE RESULTANT ABSENCE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION, HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, REACHING THE LOW-TO-MID 60S. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. REMAINING NEAR 10 MPH, THIS WILL HELP TO MODERATE LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW 80S
OFF THE CAPROCK. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
THURSDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ASSESSMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK, WITH HIGH CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL ARRIVING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS,
A POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PIVOTING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS, WITH A 500 MB 300 MB JET STREAK NEAR 80 KT
AND 100 KT, RESPECTIVELY, ROUNDING ITS BASE AND EMERGING OVER W TX
BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE LEADING MID-LEVEL WAVE OF DPVA WILL EJECT
OVER THE CWA PRIOR TO SUNSET, WITH A BROAD CORRIDOR OF INTENSE
DIVERGENCE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK, QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
DRAPED IN AN EAST-WEST-ORIENTED MANNER ACROSS THE CWA, SERVING AS A
FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS THE JET STREAKS NOSE INTO THE
REGION. DUE TO THE PRIOR TRAJECTORY OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, THE
ADVECTION OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ORIGINATING FROM THE
FAR NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED, WITH PWATS APPROACHING
FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN. THE RECORD
PWAT VALUES FOR 14/00Z AT WFOS AMA AND MAF ARE 0.69" AND 0.86",
RESPECTIVELY; AND PWATS BETWEEN 0.80-1.00" HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THESE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS ARE
ALSO COLLOCATED WITH IVT VALUES THAT ARE FORECAST TO NEAR 400 KG/M/S
IN CONGRUENCE WITH THE ADVECTION OF A MODEST EML, WHICH BOLSTERS
CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SEMI-ORGANIZE LINE(S) OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE-CALIBER STORMS SHOULD BE
OFFSET BY POOR LAPSE RATES AS THE COLUMNS SATURATE.
SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE(S) OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND/OR STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE CLOUD-LAYER FLOW, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE DOWNSHEAR PROPAGATION VECTORS, WHICH ARE NEAR
70 KT AND IS TYPICAL OF COOL-SEASON SYSTEMS, THE FLASH FLOODING RISK
WILL BE OFFSET BY THE FAST, NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CELLULAR
CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTWARD TRANSLATING LINES. NUISANCE
FLOODING, AND PONDING OF LOW-LYING ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS,
CAN BE EXPECTED. RAINFALL TOTALS MAY VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
CWA, BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF AT LEAST A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. LOCALIZED TOTALS MAY NEAR ONE INCH
FOR AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE TRAINING, OR REPEATED ROUNDS, OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
GLOBAL NWP GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE NOW-IN-RANGE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE,
HAS STARTED TO CONVERGE ON THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED, MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DIGS INTO W TX SATURDAY WHILE THE
TROUGH IN THE UPPER-LEVELS REMAINS OPEN (THE LATTER OF WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT). THE PRESENCE OF ANY VORTEX THAT DEVELOPS BETWEEN
THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR DEFORMATION
BANDING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AS IT INTERACTS WITH 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY MAY BE COOLER THAN WHAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST, ESPECIALLY AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION AND RESULTS IN NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND 20
MPH. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST-TO-EAST SATURDAY EVENING AS
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PIVOTS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL N TX. COLD AND
DAMP CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING, AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS AND PRIOR RAINFALL. DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS THEN RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...BLT
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