470
FXUS64 KLUB 120602
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1202 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
- PLEASANT AND UNSEASONABLY WARM THURSDAY.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, ALONG
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
- DRY, WARM, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK INCREASING
CHANCES OF ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE QUIET WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW SITTING NORTH
OF THE REGION OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. UPPER RIDGING REMAINS FIRMLY
IN PLACE KEEPING MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION AS A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH SWINGS OVER WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE DAY. THURSDAY
WILL BE MUCH WARMER COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SLIGHT
THICKNESS INCREASES FROM THE UPPER RIDGING AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WILL AID IN WARMING TEMPERATURES TO
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL (~15-20 DEGREES). HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S IS POSSIBLE FOR
SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK. THE QUIET AND WARM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. RADIATIVE COOLING WILL BE HINDERED BY
MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES KEEPING LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
A GLOB OF CLOSED LOWS SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY THIS WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS NARROWED ITS SPREAD AS
THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHWESTERN US FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS IT
EMERGES ONTO THE PLAINS INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. THERE DOES REMAIN MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BUT THE RESULT AT THE SURFACE
REMAINS SIMILAR. A 115-125KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREADING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD, LIFT
IS FORECAST TO PEAK FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AT
THE SAME TIME, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE DRAPED SOMEWHERE
ACROSS WEST TEXAS ALTHOUGH THE EXACT POSITION IS TOO DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST AT THIS POINT. NONETHELESS, THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
ANY PRECIPITATION IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL THE
TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THROUGHOUT THE EVENT FAVORING THE ROLLING
PLAINS BUT ALSO INCLUDES A SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE CAPROCK. INSTABILITY
VALUES WILL ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OFF THE
CAPROCK BUT IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER CHANCES. FURTHERMORE,
NCAPE VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW DUE TO THE NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT RELATIVELY WEAK UPDRAFTS. FOLLOWING THE END OF
THE PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT WILL PLOW
THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING BLUSTERY NORTHERLY WINDS. HOWEVER,
INCREASED SOLAR INSOLATION ON SUNDAY MAY BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE MOMENT, EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY THE ENTIRE WEEK LOOKS TO
SEE ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH
A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SUPPORT NEARLY DAILY SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN DRY DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. DETAILS
ARE STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE, BUT WE MAY BE IN FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...01
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