742
FXUS64 KLUB 122313
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
513 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
- DRY AND WARM NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE TODAY COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPING WSW FLOW WILL HELP
BRING HIGHS TO AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, RANGING FROM THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S. SW WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP FRIDAY MORNING LOWS MILD, GENERALLY
IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 40S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN
PRECIPITATION-FREE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF IT. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AS WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SYSTEM. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST AND
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE. AS THE JET PROGRESSES, THE LEFT EXIT REGION
ALONG WITH INCREASED VORTICITY AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, SBCAPE VALUES EVEN
ON THE CONVECTIVE-FRIENDLY NAM ONLY REACH AROUND 700 J/KG, SOUNDINGS
ARE VERY SATURATED, AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ELEVATED WINDS SHOULD
ERODE THE SKINNY CAPE. AS SUCH, SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.
AVERAGE PWATS WILL APPROACH 1.25 INCHES (SLIGHTLY LESSER ON THE
CAPROCK) BY THIS TIME FRAME AND WIDESPREAD RAIN REMAINS EXPECTED FOR
OUR ENTIRE AREA WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN CONSENSUS OF A TRIPLE POINT
DEVELOPING NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AROUND THIS TIME,
ALLOWING A DRY SLOT TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA THEREAFTER. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING, HOWEVER TRAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD INFLATE TOTALS WHERE THEY OCCUR. OVERALL TOTALS
SHOULD FALL BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AS WINDS WILL INITIALLY TURN WESTERLY,
THEN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS WILL HELP
DETERMINE DAYTIME HIGHS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FIRST DEVELOP OVER THE
FAR SW PANHANDLE, SO HIGHS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 50S, WHILE 70S WILL REMAIN OFF THE CAPROCK.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
A GENERALLY QUIET WEEK IS EXPECTED AFTER THE SATURDAY RAINFALL. A
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH, BRINGING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. A MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A
NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH, BUT NONE OF THEM WILL
REACH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO HAVE MUCH OF A DIRECT IMPACT. THAT SAID, A
RESULTANT SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY AND ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF ITS CENTER
AS WE TYPICALLY SEE IN THIS SETUP. OTHERWISE, A GENERAL WSW FLOW
PATTERN ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS TO PERSIST. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY, WITH POTENTIAL MID 80S OFF THE CAPROCK. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
WILL SLIGHTLY COOL THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS
WINDS DIMINISH. GIVEN THESE INCREASES IN TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER HUMIDITY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE
AS WELL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE SLIGHTLY
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...10
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