248
FXUS64 KLUB 130520
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY, WARM, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK INCREASING
CHANCES OF ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
WILL BE A PLEASANT REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS FILLING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL KEEP MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. UPPER
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION TO START OFF FRIDAY.
CONCURRENTLY, A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS NEVADA AND
SOCAL WILL TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
AN UPPER JET WILL PASS OVERHEAD IN COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW WITH MUCAPE
VALUES JUST UNDER 700 J/KG. HOWEVER, SOME HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE
AND LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS CAPE VALUES DRASTICALLY DECREASE
TO NEAR ZERO. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY EVENING EFFECTIVELY DRY SLOTTING THE
REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE UPPER SYSTEM. RAINFALL TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1 INCH WITH PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM JUST
UNDER 1 INCH OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE UP TO 1.25
INCHES FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK. SOME LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LEADING TO POTENTIAL FLOODING. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN
POTENTIAL, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S ARE EXPECTED
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
FOLLOWING THE PRECIPITATION EVENT ENDING ON SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY AS WE MOVE INTO AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY, WARM, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSITION TO THE EASTERN US AFTER SUNDAY LEAVING
PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN ACTIVE PATTERN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BUT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. THESE SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PROMOTE
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS AND BREEZY DOWNSLOPING WINDS EACH AFTERNOON.
MOST AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 15-
25 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. AT THE MOMENT, TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WOULD FAVOR TUESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE BREEZIEST
DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FRIDAY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...10
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