917
FXUS64 KLUB 131810
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1210 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
- SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY LINGERING CHANCES ON SATURDAY.
- WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
- NO PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
WELCOME CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS SOME AREAS SEE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 11 AM
SHOWCASED A HEALTHY PLUME OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING OVER W TX DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH CROSSING
BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN THE LOW LEVELS, GULF MOISTURE CONTINUED TO
ADVECT NORTH FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S WERE GAINING TERRITORY. AS THE TROUGH
ENTERS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, UPPER RIDGING PRESENTLY
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL DEPART AHEAD OF A BELT OF STRONGER 700-
500 MB WINDS OF AROUND 50 AND 70 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY, ENTERING THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY FUELING MUCAPES OF 400-700 J/KG, THE STAGE SHOULD BE SET
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS INITIALLY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND
MAXIMA AND IMPROVED HEIGHT FALLS. SOME MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
ALSO EVIDENT CLOSER TO THE TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
RICHER PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE, ALTHOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BECOME A
BIGGER FACTOR EVERYWHERE TONIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ UNFOLDS AND
ENHANCES ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE UNDERNEATH AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT
UPPER JET. MODELS OVERALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING VARIOUS
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT - FOCUSED PRIMARILY FROM THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OF 1/2 INCH OR MORE IS MOST LIKELY ALONG A PWAT AXIS THAT
GROWS TO BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.4 INCHES. ENOUGH CAPE IS PRESENT IN THE
HAIL GROWTH LAYER FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH A FEW
SEVERE GUSTS, BUT THESE INSTANCES SHOULD REMAIN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY, MID-LEVEL DRY SLOTTING IS EXPECTED TO SHOVE
THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIP OFF THE CAPROCK MAKING WAY FOR SOME SUNSHINE
UNDERNEATH THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/COMPACT UPPER LOW. ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE DEFICITS WILL BE GROWING ON SATURDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A HEALTHY COLD POCKET ON THE CAPROCK DURING PEAK HEATING
RESULTING IN SOME HEALTHY LAPSE RATES AND DECENT SBCAPES FOR
FEBRUARY STANDARDS. FOR THIS REASON, THUNDER MENTION WAS EXPANDED
WEST OVER MUCH OF THE CAPROCK BY THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
(ESPECIALLY OFF THE CAPROCK WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER) SUGGEST WE
COULD SEE SOME LOW-TOPPED STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY WANES AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE, BREEZY W AND NW
WINDS WILL OVERTAKE MOST OF THE CAPROCK DURING THE DAY BEHIND A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT COOLS HIGHS THERE INTO THE LOW/MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THE POTENT UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR
UNSETTLED START TO THE WEEKEND WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST,
RESULTING IN A PLEASANT AND WARM SUNDAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS
TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL
REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS MID/UPPER
TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, RESULTING IN
A MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST TX.
FLAT RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MX THROUGH THIS
PERIOD, RESULTING IN GENERALLY NEUTRAL MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
TENDENCIES AND A CORRESPONDING CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. SEVERAL STRONG SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH THE BELT OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE WEEK, BUT CURRENT CONSENSUS INDICATES THESE
FEATURES WILL TRACK TOO FAR TO OUR NORTH TO RESULT IN ANY MEANINGFUL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST TX THROUGHOUT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. INSTEAD, WE EXPECT CONSISTENTLY BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF
POTENT SURFACE LOWS DEEPEN OVER CO/KS. AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH OF THESE AFTERNOONS, WITH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY IN TANDEM WITH THE PERIOD
OF STRONGEST WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS WITH THUNDER LIKELY. SOME UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS IN THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE HEAVIER CONVECTION, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE EXPECTS
THIS TO PRIMARILY OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. DURING HEAVIER
CONVECTION, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTERMITTENT IFR. LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST UNTIL MID-MORNING WHEN
RECOVERY TO VFR OCCURS.
TOMERLIN
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...BLT
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