902
FXUS64 KLUB 140529
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1129 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
- WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT WEEK, WITH TUESDAY SEEING THE MOST
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST TO EAST OFF
THE CAPROCK AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MOISTURE PARAMETERS
REMAIN ELEVATED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND PWATS EXCEEDING ONE
INCH. NONETHELESS, THE LACK OF MUCH DRY AIR MIXING IN AND ELEVATED
WINDS ALOFT ERODING THE CAPE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THAT SAID, A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN, AND SMALL HAIL. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN EXPECTED OFF
THE CAPROCK WITH 0.5 TO 1 INCHES SEEMING MOST REASONABLE, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE STRONGER STORMS OCCUR. AS THE
LOW BEGINS TO OCCLUDE OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE, THE DRY SLOT WILL
BUILD OVER OUR AREA AND ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION OFF THE CAPROCK
SHOULD END IN THE 6-9 AM TIME FRAME. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. THESE WILL TURN NORTHERLY INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD GENERALLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY AND COMBINED WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS, WILL ALLOW FOR WELL-
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING GENERALLY FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING,
MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK, HOWEVER SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING AND
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND A
PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS NEAR 70.
INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
MOUNTAIN WEST WILL LEAD TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE ROCKIES.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA, WE WILL STILL SEE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY REACHING THE MID 80S OFF THE CAPROCK.
THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH HUMIDITIES IN
THE TEENS. A SECOND COLORADO LOW WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AND
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE FIRST ONE, IT DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE AS DEEP AT ~995 MB COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ~990 MB.
HOWEVER, BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS
AS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS
WINDS LIKEWISE DIMINISH. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER OFF
THE CAPROCK, CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT KCDS. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ALONG WITH THE SEVERE THREAT.
EXPECT VFR CIGS TO RETURN TO THE TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING
SATURDAY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...12
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