910
FXUS64 KLUB 141812
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1212 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
- COOLER TODAY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY OFF
THE CAPROCK.
- VERY WARM, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY WITH WILDFIRE
CONCERNS FOR AREAS THAT SAW MINIMAL RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
COOLER CONDITIONS WERE SWEEPING OVER THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING ON
THE HEELS OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT NEARING HIGHWAY 83 AS OF 11 AM.
ALOFT, A BROAD MERIDIONAL TROUGH AXIS WAS ENTERING W TX ACCOMPANIED
BY A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT AND AMPLE SUNSHINE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
CLEARING WAS ACROSS THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE A MID-LEVEL COLD
POCKET WAS SUSTAINING A SWATH OF LOWER CLOUDS THAT SHOULD EVOLVE
INTO SOME AGITATED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SWEEP SOUTHEAST
OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE TO
GROW INTO SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS GREATEST OFF THE
CAPROCK WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SBCAPES ARE COMPARABLY
HIGHER, SO POPS HAVE BEEN SHOVED FARTHER EAST BEFORE DRYING OUT
THIS EVENING AS MEAGER CAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG FINALLY WANE.
BREEZY NW WINDS WILL ALSO DECLINE THIS EVENING AS COOL SURFACE
RIDGING ARRIVES AHEAD OF LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. SUNDAY IS
SHAPING UP SPLENDID UNDER UPPER RIDGING WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE PULLS AWAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
TUESDAY REMAINS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED REALM AS THE
POTENTIAL IS GROWING FOR STRONG WINDS, BLOWING DUST, NEAR-RECORD
HIGH TEMPS, AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FOR SOME AREAS. UNTIL THEN,
QUIET WEATHER STARTS THE WORK WEEK UNDER UPPER RIDGING WITH LEE
TROUGHING FUELING MILDER SW BREEZES. THE UPPER RIDGE DEPARTS BY
TUESDAY AHEAD OF A ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE BY MIDDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A 170 KNOT H3 JET TO
OUR NORTHWEST. UNFORTUNATELY, THE GEFS AND NAM DRAG A H7 WIND MAX OF
55-70 KNOTS FROM EASTERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS WHICH RAISES CONCERNS FOR STRONG (30-39 MPH SUSTAINED) AND
EVEN POTENTIALLY HIGH WINDS (40+ MPH SUSTAINED) FOR THESE AREAS.
TUESDAY'S RECORD HIGH OF 85 AT LBB APPEARS SAFE FOR NOW, BUT NOT SO
MUCH AT CDS WHERE 88 COULD BE THREATENED DUE TO ENHANCED
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. THIS HEAT ALONG WITH LOW RHS AND STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SUPPORTS A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN PRIMARILY FOR OUR W-
NW ZONES WHERE RECENT RAINFALL WAS TOO LIGHT TO ALLOW DORMANT FUELS
TO WICK MOISTURE FROM THE SOIL.
THE GRADIENT FLOW RELAXES FOR WEDNESDAY UNDER CONTINUED DEEP WSW
FLOW, YET REMAINS BREEZY AND DRY ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE
CONCERNS. THESE WINDS SHOULD PERK UP BY THURSDAY AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, ALTHOUGH
THE NBM IS SADLY TOO LOW WITH THESE WINDS AT PRESENT. HIGH TEMPS
REMAIN VERY MILD UNTIL LATE WEEK AS BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
BASIN DRAWS CLOSER AND LOWERS THICKNESSES. OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN NULL IN SUCH DEEP AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD OF MVFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE NORTH
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...26
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