818
FXUS64 KLUB 151103
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
503 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
- BEAUTIFUL WEATHER SHAPING UP FOR SUNDAY AS DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
- DRY, VERY WARM, AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY,
WITH WILDFIRE CONCERNS FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED MINIMAL
RAINFALL.
- LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LAST INTO WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, ALONG WITH RENEWED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS OF 10 PM CST SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRANSLATING THROUGH THE ARKLATX REGION WITH ALL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OFF TO OUR EAST. AS THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART OVERNIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR
WEST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. TONIGHT, EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO
PREVAIL AS SKIES REMAIN PARTLY CLEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE 30S AND 40S. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT DAY AS HEIGHTS
ALONG WITH THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR, DESPITE THE
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND INCREASED GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT VALUES,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE IN PART TO THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND A LEE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO. AS A RESULT OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW, WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME BREEZY BRIEFLY
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH SPEEDS UP TO 20 MPH
POSSIBLE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR PLACES OFF THE CAPROCK, WHERE
WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH EVENING UNTIL WE SEE THE
SURFACE HIGH EXIT COMPLETELY. SUNDAY NIGHT, EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
INCREASE A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK THIS TUESDAY, WITH LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, THE
MID/UPPER-LEVELS WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED, WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF AN INTENSIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF OF SANTA CATALINA. THE ONSET
OF NEGATIVE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES ALOFT WILL GENERATE
LEEWARD PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE CWA IN A NORTH-SOUTH-ORIENTED
MANNER AND CONNECT TO A SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN CO, WITH THE MOIST
SECTOR REMAINING EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS EVEN THE LOWER
80S FOR SOME LOCALES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS, AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
RISE UP TO 18-20 DEG C. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CIRRUS BANDING
SHOULD ARRIVE BEFORE DUSK MONDAY, WITH THE HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
CONTINUING TO THICKEN DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS INTO TUESDAY. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, RESULTING IN A MILD TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING.
THE SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY EMERGING OVER SOCAL
WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE JET
STREAKS WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, RESULTING IN THE PHASING OF THE JETLETS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS, IT WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED, WITH A
300 MB JET STREAK BETWEEN 160-170 KT; A 500 MB JET STREAK BETWEEN
100-110 KT; AND A 700 MB JET STREAK NEAR 60 KT, TRANSLATING THROUGH
ITS BASE WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELONGATED WITH LONGITUDE AS THE
PHASING COMPLETES. CYCLOGENESIS OF A 984-986 MB SURFACE LOW WILL
OCCUR IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND GENERATE A STRONG,
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE BENEATH STEEPENING ISALLOHYPSES. THE SURFACE
TROUGH PREVIOUSLY ANCHORED ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK WILL HAVE
ALSO TRANSITIONED INTO A DRYLINE AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. ONLY A SLIVER OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE WITHIN THE MOIST SECTOR, AS THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO
SLOSH EAST OF THE 100TH BEFORE SUNSET TUESDAY.
ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE
CAPROCK BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH WIND
EVENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TX PH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WIND
GUSTS EXCEED 60 MPH ACROSS THE LATTER AREA, AS THE INTENSE MOUNTAIN
WAVES GENERATE ROTORS THAT WILL PROPAGATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CWA AND MIX DOWN THE HIGH-MOMENTUM FLOW ALOFT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES DUE TO THE CWA
BEING POSITIONED BENEATH THE RIGHT EXIT-REGION OF THE JET STREAKS
ALOFT, WITH LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS OCCURRING FARTHER EAST INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS. BLOWING DUST IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY, AND AN OFFICIAL
MENTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WINDS WERE
RAISED FROM THE NBM, WITH A 50-PERCENT WEIGHTING APPLIED TO THE NBM
90TH PERCENTILE, WHICH IS WITHIN THE UPPER-BOUNDS OF THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE AND ESSENTIALLY MATCHES THE NBM 5.0. THE WIND GUST FACTOR
WAS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY, AND CAPPED AT 55 KT, OR 65 MPH.
WILDFIRE CONCERNS WILL ARISE TUESDAY, PRIMARILY FOR AREAS THAT
RECEIVED LITTLE RAINFALL FROM THE RECENT EVENT, WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR THE RAPID GROWTH AND SPREAD OF FIRES SITUATED ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, WHICH SAW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RAIN THIS PAST FRIDAY. THICK CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING OVER THE
CWA TUESDAY DUE TO PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAINS, AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CIRRUS WILL CURTAIL HIGH-END FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DRIER AREAS WHILE ALSO
AFFECTING RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITHIN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER. ADJUSTMENTS
TO DEWPOINTS (AND THEREFORE, RH) HAVE BEEN WITHHELD WITH THIS
PROGNOSTICATION. AT LEAST LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AS THE JET STREAKS WILL
TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-ZONAL STATE FOLLOWING A MODULATION OF THE
MERIDIONAL WAVEGUIDE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. FLOW WILL REMAIN
AMPLIFIED AS A RESULT, WITH CYCLOGENESIS PERSISTING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER MID-WEEK, AS
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH W TX WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE BROADENED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FINALLY
EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
MILD AND BENIGN WEATHER ARRIVING BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DURATION OF MVFR CIGS AT
CDS, LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
AROUND 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL AT THE
TERMINALS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...51
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