379
FXUS64 KLUB 152301
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
501 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
- DRY, VERY WARM, AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH
WILDFIRE CONCERNS. FIRE WEATHER AND HIGH WIND WATCHES HAVE
BEEN POSTED.
- LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ALONG WITH RENEWED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
THIS MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US OUR RAIN CHANCES
AND COLD FRONT, IS EXITING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US, WITH A
UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE CWA. DESPITE THIS RIDGE
AND INCREASE IN GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS, HIGHS TODAY ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, TEMPERED BY
GRADUAL UPSLOPE FLOW BEFORE LEE TROUGHING IN SE CO SHIFTS WINDS
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. A PLEASANT NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AREA WIDE, WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WORK WEEK, ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. A RATHER DEEP LOW OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE WILL RESULT IN A RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION
(175KTS AT 250MB). THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION, DRIVING SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SHARPEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE AREA.
HERE LOCALLY, BREEZY 20-25 MPH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
START MONDAY AS LEE-TROUGHING OCCURS AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO EVEN LOW 80S. BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT, KEEPING
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ABNORMALLY WARM IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT INCREASES TUESDAY OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. WE HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH NBM WIND
75TH PERCENTILE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH 90TH PERCENTILE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE ELECTED TO GO WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH ON
THE CAPROCK WITH POTENTIAL WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. IN ADDITION TO
THE STRONG WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES, THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT
THE DRYLINE EAST OF THE CWA, RESULTING IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE TEENS. THIS WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT DID NOT SEE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAPID GROWTH OF FIRES WOULD BE
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS,
WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS OVERLAP WITH AREAS THAT RECEIVED LITTLE
RAINFALL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WEST OF A
SILVERTON TO DENVER CITY LINE. CIRRUS WILL TEMPER FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY TUESDAY, BUT MODELS HAVE A DRY PUNCH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING
DEEPER MIXING.
WHILE TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PEAK FOR WIND AND FIRE
CONDITIONS, DRY, WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY AS ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF LEE-
TROUGHING AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, DROPPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60'S, BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE.
THE BROADENED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FINALLY EJECT
EASTWARD INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
MILD AND BENIGN WEATHER ARRIVING BY NEXT WEEKEND.
TOMERLIN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AND
BECOMING BREEZY BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AT KCDS, KLBB, AND KPVW.
SINCAVAGE
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ021>024-027>029-033-034-039.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
TXZ021>024-027>029-033>035.
DISCUSSION...BLT
AVIATION...09
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