509
FXUS64 KLUB 160532
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1132 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
- WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY TO START THE WORK WEEK.
- STRONG-TO-HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION
TUESDAY, WITH A CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED MINIMAL
RAINFALL.
- WARM AND LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, LEADING TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
NOT MUCH TO RELAY FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PACKAGE EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH THE MAIN MESSAGE BEING WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO START THE WORK WEEK. TAKING A LOOK AT THE H5 LEVEL,
THE FA WILL RESIDE BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AS THE RIDGE AXIS
BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
ONSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS A RESULT, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO FLATTEN EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY
EVENING AS THE LOW INCHES CLOSER TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE, LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CO WILL PREVAIL AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE A STRONGER SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PACNW/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. THE LEE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS MONDAY AS IT TRANSLATES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION, GIVING WAY
TO BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. THESE WARM-BREEZY
WINDS COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL INFLUENCE MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO WHAT WE SAW THIS WEEKEND, DESPITE THICKNESS
AND HEIGHT VALUES REMAINING UNTOUCHED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S.
TONIGHT, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 15 MPH IN
RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE FROM THE PAIR OF SURFACE LOWS
DOMINATING TO OUR NORTHWEST. GIVEN WINDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED, COMBINED WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, AN INTENSE, NEGATIVELY-TILTED, SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER
WEST, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST, WITH ITS UPSTREAM JET STREAK BEGINNING TO PHASE WITH
THE LONGITUDINALLY-ELONGATING JETLETS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE JET STREAKS TRANSLATING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH, WITH THE 300 MB JET STREAK
APPROACHING 170 KT; AND THE 500 MB AND 700 MB JET STREAKS NEARING
110 KT AND 70 KT, RESPECTIVELY, AS THE JETLETS NOSE INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE CWA WILL BE BENEATH THE RIGHT-EXIT REGION OF THE
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS, RESULTING IN A WIDE GRADIENT OF
WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE CWA. CYCLOGENESIS OF A 984-986 MB SURFACE LOW
WILL OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND GENERATE A LARGE-SCALE
ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE, WITH WINDS ACCELERATING QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE
AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER BEGINS TO COUPLE WITH THE HIGH-MOMENTUM FLOW.
THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPROCK, PARTICULARLY IN
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TX PH NEAREST THE JET MAXIMA. WINDS WERE RAISED
FROM THE NBM AND ALIGNED WITH THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MOST OF
THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH THE GUST FACTOR RAISED TO 55 KT. THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE CROSS-BARRIER FLOW WILL ALSO GENERATE INTENSE MOUNTAIN WAVES
THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE AS FAR EAST AS THE 100TH MERIDIAN GIVEN THE
LONGITUDINAL EXTENSION OF THE JET STREAKS. AS SUCH, ROTORS EMANATING
FROM HYDRAULIC JUMPS ALONG THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS
WILL FACILITATE THE DOWNWARD MIXING OF THE HIGHER-MOMENTUM AIR
ALOFT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH 65-70 MPH
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TX PH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS BETWEEN
55-65 MPH SHOULD BE COMMON ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CAPROCK DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BLOWING DUST WILL RESULT IN REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ON
THE CAPROCK. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES DUE TO THE MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH A THICK CIRRUS SHIELD MAY
AFFECT MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. SKY COVER HAS BEEN INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OPAQUE CIRRUS, WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR EAST OF THE CWA BEFORE
SUNSET. THE HIGH WIND WATCH AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
BETWEEN 17/17Z-18/01Z (OR 11 AM THROUGH 7 PM CST TUESDAY).
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY EVENING, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TRANSITIONING TOWARDS THE WEST POST-FROPA WHILE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH 18/05Z (MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY). WINDS
WERE RAISED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY, AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SLOW TO SLACKEN DUE TO THE SUPERPOSITION
OF THE BROADLY CYCLONIC JET STREAKS RELATIVE TO THE CWA. DESPITE THE
BRISK, WESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE CAPROCK, WITH
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE-UPPER 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. PACIFIC COLD
FRONTS NOTORIOUSLY AID IN IMPROVEMENTS TO RH REGARDLESS OF THE
WESTERLY FETCH, AND RH IS FORECAST TO RECOVER BETWEEN 40-55 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PHASING OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW WILL BE
COMPLETED BY WEDNESDAY, WITH A BROAD, GYRE-LIKE FORMATION TO THE
FLOW EVOLVING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AS THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL MODULATE THE
JET STREAM INTO A QUASI-ZONAL STATE ACROSS THE LOWER 48, WITH THE
CORE OF THE JETLETS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CWA.
LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY, AS A
LEADING SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS
AND RESULTS IN CYCLOGENESIS OF ANOTHER SURFACE LOW, AT OR AROUND 994
MB, NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE. FULL INSOLATION IS FORECAST COMPARED TO
TUESDAY, WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURNING DUE TO THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH AND WARM TEMPERATURES. A SECONDARY PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE NEGATIVELY-TILTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BRISK HEADING
INTO THURSDAY WHILE ONCE AGAIN SHIFTING TO THE WEST, WITH A RENEWED
RISK FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. GLOBAL NWP GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT THE FINAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PIVOT OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE NORTHERN DISPLACEMENT OF THIS TROUGH
WOULD KEEP THE CWA BENEATH THE DRY SLOT, WITH BENIGN WEATHER TO
FOLLOW AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BECOMING
BREEZY AT ALL TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
STRONG-TO-HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION TUESDAY,
WITH A RISK OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CAPROCK AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE FIRE WEATHER
RISK WILL BE TEMPERED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
PAST WEEKEND. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 65-70 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TX PH. GUSTS
BETWEEN 55-60 MPH SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK
OTHERWISE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN IN THE ROLLING PLAINS, WITH SPEEDS
BETWEEN 20-30 MPH FORECAST WHILE REMAINING NEAR ADVISORY-LEVEL IN
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX PH. THICK CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH VALUES TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND THE CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR BEFORE SUNSET.
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST PRIOR TO SUNSET FROM THE PASSAGE
OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. RH WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 40-55 PERCENT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 20-30 MPH AMIDST FULL SUNSHINE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ021>024-027>029-033-034-039.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
TXZ021>024-027>029-033>035.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...12
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