795
FXUS64 KLUB 161752
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1152 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
- BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE PLEASANT AND QUIET. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AS A RESULT OF UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT
THICKNESS INCREASES WILL AID TEMPERATURES IN WARMING TO WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. QUIET AND
WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING, HOWEVER WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BREEZY OVERNIGHT. MODERATE WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS FILLING IN
OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
OVERNIGHT.
ALL THE ACTION IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TUESDAY WITH HIGH WINDS AND
POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS
THE PACIFIC COAST MONDAY BEFORE TRANSLATING OVER THE ROCKIES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION TUESDAY WITH 500 MB JET
UP TO 110 KNOTS AND 700 MB JET UP TO 80 KNOTS. CONCURRENTLY, A LEE
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING OF
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE. THE COMBINATION OF THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THE STRONG UPPER JET MIXING DOWN WILL GIVE WAY TO A
GUSTY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING WITH AN
EXPECTED PEAK AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS UP TO 30-45 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ON THE CAPROCK,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECASTS, NBM CONTINUES TO UNDERPLAY WIND SPEEDS WITH THIS
SET UP, THEREFORE SPEEDS WERE INCREASED USING NBM75TH BEGINNING LATE
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WITH THE EXPECTED STRONG
WINDS, AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAPROCK
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ON TOP OF HIGH WINDS, TUESDAY WILL
BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO UPPER 80S. WARM TEMPERATURES AND
STRONG WINDS WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO MUCH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER WITH THE RAINFALL THE REGION GOT THIS PAST
FRIDAY, FUEL RESPONSES ARE UNCERTAIN AT THE MOMENT, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THAT RECEIVED AROUND 0.5
INCHES OR LESS COMPARED TO AREAS ON THE SOUTH PLAINS THAT SAW OVER 1
INCH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA WILL SLIGHTLY SHIFT
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE WEST AT THE SAME TIME AS THE MID TO UPPER JET
EXITS AWAY FROM THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
WINDY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS CAUSING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A LEE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES.
ALTHOUGH COOLER THAN TUESDAY, REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY SEEMS TO BE A RINSE AND REPEAT OF
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER CENTRAL CONUS CAUSING A LEE
SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP GIVING WAY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
IN CASE YOU THOUGHT THERE WEREN'T ANYMORE UPPER SHORTWAVES, ANOTHER
ONE WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL "COOL" THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MILD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
ALTHOUGH VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY STRONG WINDS BEGINNING
LATE TOMORROW MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
STRONG-TO-HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION TUESDAY,
WITH A RISK OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, SOUTH PLAINS AND MOST OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. FUEL RESPONSES ARE UNCERTAIN AT THE MOMENT DUE TO THE
RAINFALL RECEIVED LAST WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AROUND SUNRISE AND PEAK AROUND MID-AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
UP TO 30-45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPROCK, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS OFF THE CAPROCK,
ALTHOUGH BREEZY, WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS ON THE CAPROCK WITH
SPEEDS UP TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. RH VALUES
WILL DROP AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, HOWEVER
WILL RECOVER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE AROUND SUNSET.
BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH NOT
AS STRONG AS TUESDAY BRINGING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AGAIN. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON UP TO
25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY,
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPROCK. RH VALUES WILL
REACH AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT BEFORE RECOVERING UP TO 30-50 PERCENT
OVERNIGHT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ021>042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ021>036-039>041.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
TXZ021>024-027>029-033>035.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01
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