018
FXUS64 KLUB 171750
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
- CRITICAL FIRE DANGER AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
- WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
- BREEZY WINDS AND POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
STRONG WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ON TRACK FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER JET OVERHEAD TODAY WILL EXIT THE EAST OF
THE REGION THIS EVENING. CONCURRENTLY, THE LEE SURFACE LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. MODERATE WINDS AND LINGERING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
MILD AND QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM LOWER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ANOTHER WINDY AND ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER
DAY, ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TUESDAY. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
TRANSLATE ACROSS THE ROCKIES EARLY WEDNESDAY, TRIGGERING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE LOW OVER COLORADO. CONCURRENTLY, A JET
STREAK MAXIMA ON THE EXIT REGION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL SET UP
OVERHEAD WITH 500 MB UP TO 86 KNOTS AND 700 MB UP TO 50 KNOTS. THE
COMBINATION OF UPPER JET MIXING DOWN AND THE SURFACE LOW TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, WE WILL SEE BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WIND SPEEDS UP TO 25
TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. NBM WINDS CAME
IN LOW COMPARED TO MOS GUIDANCE, THEREFORE WERE INCREASED USING A
MIX OF NBM75TH AND NBM90TH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE CAPROCK WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25 MPH
EXPECTED OFF THE CAPROCK. POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST WILL ACCOMPANY THE GUSTY WINDS, WITH GREATER POTENTIAL ON THE
CAPROCK. WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH WAA FROM SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. ALTHOUGH NOT AS
WARM AS TUESDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH RH VALUES REACHING AS LOW AS
AROUND 10 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS GIVE WAY TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THEREFORE, A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE, SOUTH PLAINS, AND MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS FROM 11 AM
TO 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
THE WINDY AND DRY THEME THAT STARTED OFF THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE MORE UPPER
SHORTWAVES. THE LEE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPED WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING PULLING A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SHIFTING THE
WINDS TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SLIGHTLY, THEY WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO BREEZY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A SIMILAR PATTERN AS WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A
SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE ROCKIES SETTING UP ANOTHER JET MAXIMA
OVERHEAD WITH 500 MB BETWEEN 85-100 KNOTS AND A LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. DECREASING HEIGHTS
FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER HIGHS
REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THURSDAY WILL NOT BE AS WARM COMPARED TO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE, NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS, AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
FOR 11 AM TO 8 PM THURSDAY.
IF YOU WEREN'T TIRED OF THE WEST TEXAS WINDS JUST YET, I HAVE GOOD
NEWS FOR YOU. A VERY SIMILAR SET UP AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE, A JET STREAK OVERHEAD, AND
A DEVELOPING LEE SURFACE LOW. MODELS INDICATE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, THOSE WINDS
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH. AS FOR THE WEEKEND, NO MORE PASSING
SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT GIVING
WAY TO A QUIET AND COOLER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT ALL TAF SITES AS HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO THIN OUT. THIS MAY ALSO BRING VISBY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLDU AT KLBB AND KPVW. HOWEVER, THE DEGREE OF
RESTRICTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THE MOMENT. WINDS WILL PEAK MID
AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY DECREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS HAVE ALREADY RAMPED UP. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25
TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TUESDAY, WINDY CONDITIONS
RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE CAPROCK. RH
VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL DROP AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT. WINDY
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER TO MUCH
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE AND RH
VALUES RECOVER TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER BREEZY AND
DRY DAY IS EXPECTED THURSDAY BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER DANGER.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>037-
039>042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ021>036-
039>041.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>024-
027>029-033>035.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ021>038.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ025-026-030>032-
036-037-039>042.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01
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