064
FXUS64 KLUB 181109
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
509 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WILL CREATE SOME
BLOWING DUST AND A WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
- BREEZY AND WARM THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE A COOLING TREND ARRIVES
SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
THE DUST WAS LITERALLY SETTLING THIS EVENING ON THE HEELS OF OUR
FIRST REGIONAL HIGH WIND EVENT OF THE YEAR. THE UPPER TROUGH
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS MAYHEM WAS SPEEDING OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AT 10 PM AHEAD OF A LOOSENING WSW GRADIENT FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE, COOL AND SEMI-MOIST WNW WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
DOMAIN FOLLOWING AN EARLIER PACIFIC FROPA. THESE COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL CARRY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT DEWPOINTS WILL TUMBLE LOWER
THAN TUESDAY AS W WINDS BACK SW AND ADVECT A LAYER OF DRIER AIR OUR
WAY. THIS PROCESS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN
WSW FLOW THAT SPURS LEE TROUGHING THAT AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE DAY.
MODELS AGREE IN WIND MAXIMA OF AROUND 30 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40
KNOTS AT 700 MB DEVELOPING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS BEFORE TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH SUNSET, SO WE SHOULD
SEE A DELAYED UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS AND PATCHY BLOWING DUST FROM W-
E. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND HREF MAX ENSEMBLES POINT TO A WINDOW ROUGHLY
FROM 3 PM TO 6 PM OF SPOTTY ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS (SUSTAINED 30-39
MPH) PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS, BUT FOR NOW THIS IS
TOO SPARSE AND BRIEF TO JUSTIFY A WIND ADVISORY. THE BASE NBM WINDS
LOOKED TOO TAME AND WERE BLENDED INTO THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE
REALM TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR DEEPER MIXING IN THIS DRIER AIR MASS.
WINDS VEER WEST OVERNIGHT AND STAY BREEZY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. AFTER SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY, LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DON'T LOOK TO STRAY MUCH FROM THE 30S AND 40S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS IS ON TAP FOR THE
CAPROCK REGIONS, BEFORE WE SEE QUIETER WEATHER RETURN TO THE AREA
JUST IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PACKAGE, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE RETURN OF
LOW-END WIND AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL EJECT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGIONS. FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND, AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE WILL
BEGIN TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
REGION, SENDING ITS ASSOCIATED H5 (~100KT) JET STREAKS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, CLIPPING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. IN
RESPONSE, THE LEE CYCLONE OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN, WITH SURFACE PRESSURES FALLING AS A RESULT. AS WE SEE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGIN TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION, NOT ONLY THE
H7 BUT THE H8 WIND MAXIMAS WILL STRENGTHEN AS THEY TRACK THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE REGIONS. COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY, THESE JET
STREAKS FROM THE SURFACE TO MID-LEVELS HAVE TAKEN A MORE SOUTHERN
APPROACH WHICH HAS LEAD TO A HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY. IN FACT, MOST GUIDANCE IS NOW SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WIND MAX AT THE 700 MB LEVEL AROUND 60 KNOTS. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, THE H8 WIND MAX LOOKS TO RESIDE MORE TOWARDS THE OKC
METRO CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA
INDICATE A DEEPENING AND WELL MIXED PBL AS WE ENTER PEAK HEATING
HOURS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD WORK TO INFLUENCE AT LEAST
HIGH-END BREEZY TO LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY.
DESPITE THIS, MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINS "WEAKER" IN
NATURE COMPARED TO THE FORCING WE SAW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALL
THIS TO SAY ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT BE BREEZY IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY TO
WHAT WE EXPERIENCED EARLIER THIS WEEK. NONETHELESS, THESE CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH COOLER, STILL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 70S. AS NOTED, A
LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED, AS A WEAK FRONT WORKS ITS
WAY THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST HI-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THIS
FRONT STALLING NEAR THE I-27/US-82 CORRIDOR, THUS LEADING TO COOLER
HIGHS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND WARMER ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. DESPITE THE THE BREEZIER WIND SPEEDS, WE LOOK
TO REMAINS BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE
"COOLER" TEMPERATURES AND SUBTLE UPTICK IN MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
LIMIT NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY OF THE WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS,
AS ANOTHER (YES ANOTHER, THATS WHY IT IS CALLED A WAVE TRAIN!)
SHORTWAVE TRANSITS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED JET WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE THROUGH WHILE THE
LEE LOW SIMULTANEOUSLY DOES THE SAME, TIGHTENING THE SURFACE
GRADIENT. DESPITE TEMPERATURES WARMER IN THE 60S AND 70S AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS, MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
ABOVE 15% WHICH SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED AT BEST.
COOLER AND QUIETER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS A FROPA MAKES
ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS, SENDING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK INTO THE
50S AND 60S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE WEST THIS EARLY MORNING WILL BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20
KT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KT, AT KCDS, KLBB, AND KPVW. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY BY DUSK, AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST AT
THE TAIL-END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. BLDU IS POSSIBLE AT KLBB AND KPVW
ONCE AGAIN TODAY, BUT VSBYS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR.
SINCAVAGE
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CRITICAL FIRE DANGER FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.
AFTER MODEST RH RECOVERIES IN THE MORNING, RHS WILL FALL TO AROUND
10 PERCENT BY MID-AFTERNOON. COOLER, BUT CONTINUED BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL
CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ021>036-039>041.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ021>038.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...09
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