814
FXUS64 KLUB 181809
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1209 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
- CONTINUING WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER TODAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY.
- QUIET AND COOLER WEEKEND THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER WARM
AND BREEZY WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS WITH A BELT OF VERY STRONG WSW FLOW ALOFT STILL IN PLACE
OVER OUR REGION AT THE BASE OF LONGWAVE MID/UPPER TROUGHING OVER
MOST OF THE CONTINENT. WINDS WILL ENTER SOLIDLY BREEZY TERRITORY
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS FROM SE
CO THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, DESPITE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
AMPLE MIXING, WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS TUESDAY GIVEN
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN THE 850MB-700MB LAYER. STILL, THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO
30 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING, AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. TONIGHT, A NOTABLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY OVER SOUTHERN CO AND INTO KS/NE
BY THURSDAY MORNING. A SUB-995MB SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
MODIFIED PACIFIC FRONT WILL SUBSEQUENTLY TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT,
WHICH COMBINED WITH ABOUT 40KT OF 850MB FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS
RELATIVELY BREEZY TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH FOR MOST.
ON THURSDAY, THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST, WHILE A SEPARATE LEE TROUGH STEADILY
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM. FLOW ABOVE 500MB WILL
REMAIN VERY STRONG, BUT THE PRECISE MAGNITUDE OF LOW AND MIDLEVEL
FLOW IS UNCERTAIN WHICH RESULTS IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL ESTABLISH AND HOW STRONG THEY BECOME ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
CLOSED LOW AT 850MB AND 700MB WHICH WILL POSITION SOMEWHERE OVER
EASTERN KS/NE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS A RESULT, WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR THIS LOW, AND RELATIVELY
WEAKER OVER WEST TX. STILL, THE AMPLIFIED SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND A TRAILING BELT OF 30-40KT FLOW AT 700MB IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN SUSTAINED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THESE WILL LIKELY BE
STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE, WEAKENING WITH SOUTHERN
EXTENT. REGARDING TEMPERATURES, THURSDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER
RELATIVE TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS MODEST COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
SEEING HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
SADLY, THE WEST TEXAS WINDS ARE NOT OVER YET. FIRE WEATHER DANGER
AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY WILL START
OFF WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
A JET MAXIMA ON THE EXIT REGION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD
WITH 250MB WINDS AROUND 150 KNOTS AND 500 MB AROUND 90 KNOTS. THE
PASSING OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE
SIDE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CO. AS THE LEE LOW EJECTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST, IT WILL PULL A PACIFIC COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION GIVING WAY FOR BREEZY TO GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NBM CONTINUES TO COME IN TOO LOW WITH WIND SPEEDS,
THEREFORE WERE INCREASED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A
COMBINATION OF NBM75TH AND NBM90TH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE COOLING TREND DUE TO HEIGHT DECREASES FROM THE PASSING OF THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE AS WELL AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT, ALTHOUGH STILL
REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. CONSIDERING THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT, NBM CAME IN TOO WARM WITH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
COMPARED TO MOS GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WERE DECREASED USING NBM25TH
GIVING HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. POST FRONTAL AIR
WILL ALSO BE DRY WITH RH VALUES REACHING AS LOW AS 12 PERCENT. WINDY
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING POSSIBLE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER ACROSS THE CAPROCK FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS
AND LOWER RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED. AS A RESULT, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE, SOUTH PLAINS, AND WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
LUCKILY, THE WINDY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES DO NOT
CONTINUE AND WE CAN EXPECT A PLEASANT AND QUIET WEEKEND. MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL AS UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO AMPLIFY
OVER WESTERN CONUS. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY BRINGING NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS WEEK WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EACH DAY. THIS UPPER PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND BEGINNING MONDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND REMAIN
RELATIVELY STRONG THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT
EXPECTED. SOME MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM BLDU ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT AT THIS TIME VFR IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY, AND ALTHOUGH A
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY RESULT IN POCKETS OF LLWS, WILL KEEP
MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTATION THAT SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY BREEZY OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY, AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
REGION UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW 10 PERCENT. TONIGHT, WINDS WILL TURN MORE
WESTERLY AND REMAIN RELATIVELY BREEZY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH, WITH RH RECOVERY AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT. ANOTHER DAY OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH LIKELY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS FARTHER SOUTH. DESPITE
MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 10 TO 18 PERCENT THURSDAY GIVEN COOLER
TEMPERATURES, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY AND
THE PRIOR FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. AN ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR
FRIDAY FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>036-
039>041.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CST THURSDAY FOR TXZ021>038.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30
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