378
FXUS64 KLUB 191819
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1219 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
- WINDY AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING.
- A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE CAPROCK FRIDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN THE RETURN
OF CRITICAL FIRE DANGER.
- A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BEFORE WARM
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED FIRE DANGER RETURN NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ON TRACK FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE OVERPERFORMING COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECASTED WINDS WITH WEST TEXAS MESONETS ALREADY MEASURING
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 30 TO 35 MPH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. THEREFORE, WINDS WERE INCREASED USING NBM90TH THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LEE
SURFACE LOW TRANSLATING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH COOLER LOW TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS. LOWS OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WILL
REACH AS LOW AS 20 DEGREES, HOWEVER MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL KEEP
LOWS IN THE 30S.
WINDY AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT OVER YET AS A SIMILAR
SYNOPTIC SET UP AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. A
SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FRIDAY MORNING
TRIGGERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LEE SIDE LOW OVER COLORADO
EFFECTIVELY TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL START THE DAY FRIDAY, HOWEVER WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT PUSHES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. NBM CONTINUES TO UNDERPLAY POST-FRONTAL
WIND SPEEDS, THEREFORE WERE INCREASED USING A COMBINATION OF NBM75TH
AND NBM90TH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS INDICATE THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE CAPROCK SOMETIME EARLY EVENING
RESULTING IN THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING ACROSS THE CAPROCK WITH WIND
SPEEDS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH EXPECTED.
THEREFORE, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE SOUTH PLAINS. DRIER AIR WILL FILL IN
FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH RH VALUES REACHING AS LOW AS 12 PERCENT.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TO MUCH OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT, A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE, SOUTH PLAINS, AND PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS FROM
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
WAA FROM SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
THE BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD BEGINNING SATURDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE MIDWEST BY SUNDAY.
THIS EVOLUTION WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
ON SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL IN TURN BRING US A WELCOME BREAK
FROM OUR RECENT STRETCH OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S,
AND BRISK NORTH WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE
WEAKENING BY EARLY SUNDAY AS A ~1034MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY, THOUGH
HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO SATURDAY AS WINDS
REGAIN MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS FAIRLY
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER BAJA CA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH BACK INTO THE
70S AND 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MOST GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY
CONDITIONS DURING THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME AS WELL GIVEN THE PRESENCE
OF A FEW SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRANSITING ALONG THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. CONSEQUENTLY, ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
LOOK LIKELY TO RETURN BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE CONTINUING TO VEER TO THE
SOUTH AND BECOME BREEZY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST TODAY.
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 35
MPH OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS. WE CAN ALSO EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. STRONG WINDS AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY. A LEE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER
CO WILL GIVE WAY TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
BEGINNING EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING JUST OFF THE CAPROCK BY
EARLY EVENING. STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FILL IN ACROSS
THE CAPROCK FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS UP OF 35 TO 40 MPH AND
GUSTS OF 55 TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER UP TO 60
PERCENT OVERNIGHT BEFORE DECREASING TO AS LOW AS 12 PERCENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FILLS IN. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE, SOUTH PLAINS, AND PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS FROM 11
AM UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY THE EVENING
AS THE PACIFIC FRONT DISSIPATES.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>038.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ021>024-
027>031-033>037-039>042.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>023-027>030-
033>036.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 5 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ021>023-
027>029-033>035-039>041.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...10
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