011
FXUS64 KLUB 201112
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
512 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND SOME BLOWING DUST RETURN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
- COOL START TO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WIND AND WARMTH RETURN NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
SURFACE OBS AT 10 PM WERE SAMPLING A BACKDOOR FRONT FROM ABOUT VEGA
TO HAPPY AND PADUCAH. TEMPS WERE PROPERLY COOL BEHIND THIS FRONT
WITH SOME UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S LOOMING NORTH OF I40 AND THIS
APPEARS TO BE A GROWING FACTOR IN THE FRONT NOT RETREATING AS
RAPIDLY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS EARLIER INDICATED. HIGH RES MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN COOL SSE SOURCE FLOW HOLDING OVER ALL BUT
OUR FAR WESTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES BY 18Z FRIDAY, SO WINDS WERE
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. ALOFT MEANWHILE, WSW FLOW WILL SHARPEN THROUGH
THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PEELS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
SUBJECTING MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK TO 25-30 KNOTS OF WESTERLY 850
MB FLOW AND AROUND 50-55 KNOTS AT 700 MB. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN
SOUTHEAST CO WILL ALSO AID IN REGIONAL PRESSURE FALLS AND A
SHARPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW EXITS NM, THE
EARLIER FRONT WILL RETREAT EAST AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY, BUT
NOW LOOKS TO FALL SHORT OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE COOLER SSE FLOW
REMAINS WEDGED IN PLACE. MIXING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE SHOWN
TO MAX OUT NEAR 700 MB IN DRY WESTERLY FLOW, SO THE WIND ADVISORY
LOOKS GOOD FOR ALL OF THE CAPROCK. EVEN IF THE FRONT ACCELERATES
FASTER THAN MOST MODELS SHOW, A BIGGER FLY IN THE OINTMENT REGARDING
STRONG WINDS IS SEEN WITH A GROWING SIGNAL FOR A BIFURCATED 850 MB
WIND MAX THAT COULD LEAVE A GOOD CHUNK OF THE SOUTH PLAINS IN
BETWEEN THE WIND CORES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS DETAIL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO JUSTIFY CHANGES BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR.
A PACIFIC FRONT AND GROWING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL FINALLY SWEEP EAST
FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERTAKE THE STUBBORN FRONT EXPECTED TO BE
LOITERING NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK. ALTHOUGH NW FLOW FILLS IN
BEHIND THIS FROPA, LOW TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD NOT BE TOO
DISSIMILAR FROM FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
NO TANGIBLE EVIDENCE OF PRECIP IS EVIDENT FOR THIS PART OF TEXAS IN
THE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER JET DISPLACES WELL TO OUR NORTH COURTESY
OF ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. UNTIL THIS RIDGE TAKES
SHAPE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE WEEKEND STARTS OFF ON A COOL NOTE ON
THE HEELS OF FRIDAY NIGHT'S UPPER TROUGH AND PACIFIC FROPA. COOL
SURFACE RIDGING SLOWLY DEPARTS BY SUNDAY UNDERNEATH RISING HEIGHTS
IN NW FLOW. HIGH TEMPS MODERATE SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY AS LEE
TROUGHING BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED, BUT IT LOOKS TO TAKE UNTIL
TUESDAY BEFORE WE SEE PRONOUNCED WARMING ARRIVE ONCE THE LEE TROUGH
SHARPENS AND ACCELERATES OUR DOWNSLOPE WINDS. UPPER RIDGING BY
TUESDAY IS PROGGED TO SPAN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE COLLAPSING
ON WEDNESDAY AS A TRAIN OF PACIFIC TROUGHS SHOOT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO EVEN MORE WIND AND VERY WARM
TEMPS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK COMPLETE WITH DAILY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT KLBB AND KPVW WILL VEER TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE WEST BY SUNSET AS A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO W TX. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER
18Z, WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KT POSSIBLE, AT KLBB AND KPVW. BLDU MAY
OCCUR AT KLBB AND KPVW LEADING UP TO SUNSET, BUT RESTRICTIONS TO
VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SLIGHTLY BREEZY AT KCDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
AND TRANSITION TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. VFR OTHERWISE.
SINCAVAGE
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
AFTER STEADY SOUTHEAST BREEZES OF 10-15 MPH FRIDAY MORNING, STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE CAPROCK ON FRIDAY. THESE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR THE TX-NM BORDER WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AT TIMES IN
THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF THE EDGE OF
THE CAPROCK BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SO THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS UPDATED
TO REMOVE MOTLEY AND DICKENS COUNTY. AREAS FARTHER WEST CAN STILL
EXPECT RHS TO TUMBLE INTO THE LOW/MID TEENS BY MID-AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY SUNSET AND TURN NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD
FRONT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
TXZ021>023-027>029-033>035-039>041.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...09
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